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0x8adc…bafc
0x8adc5aceb4718b2972e34dfffa45d58b56b5bafc
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 5652 with median hold 6.4 hours, maker share only 45%.
Capital velocity 1.0 and held-to-resolution 49% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
Separately, skill grade F scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:11:24 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$-85.2k
Open PnL
$7.37k
Max drawdown
$108k
Underwater days
118
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $1.47k | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $-10.5k | $-29.8k | $-40k | $-94.8k |
| Win rate | 22% | 23% | 53% | 53% |
| ROI | -84% | -56% | -8% | -6% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.582 | -0.111 | -0.086 |
| Markets | 6 | 28 | 383 | 1018 |
| Best day | $-1.26k | $4.9k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.06 | 0.21 | 0.80 | 0.86 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-1.17k | $-960 | $-99 | $-93 |
| Median trade PnL | $-660 | $-525 | $115 | $38 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.22 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Largest win | $380 | $4.4k | $8.46k | $16k |
| Largest loss | $-2.99k | $-5.4k | $-21.5k | $-21.5k |
| Expectancy | $-1.17k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $6.56k | $8.24k | $6.3k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.361 | -0.084 | -0.073 |
| Calmar | -0.789 | -0.789 | -0.789 | -0.789 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 117.5 | 117.5 | 117.5 | 117.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 25% | 12% | 6% | 2% |
| Concentration top-5 | 87% | 47% | 17% | 6% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 75% | 25% | 11% |
| Max win streak | 1 | 3 | 18 | 18 |
| Max loss streak | 7 | 11 | 23 | 23 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 24 | 144 | 2039 | 5652 |
| Unique markets | 6 | 28 | 383 | 1018 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 100% | 103% | 94% |
| Avg entry price | 0.680 | 0.668 | 0.427 | 0.540 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.307 | 0.095 | 0.010 | 0.003 |
| Maker share (notional) | 95% | 73% | 76% | 45% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 0.9 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 18.4 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 6.4 |
| Max concurrent | 1 | 4 | 94 | 512 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.26 | 4.02 | 1.27 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | 79% | 51% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | 12% | 35% |
| Tilt ratio | 6.36 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 20% | 12% | 24% | 49% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.3724 | 0.2519 | 0.2214 | 0.2189 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.2990 | 0.2277 | 0.2156 | 0.2189 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.996 | 0.972 | 0.934 | 0.747 |
| Exit quality ($) | $0 | $0 | $-15 | $-9 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.8% | -0.5% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0526 | -0.0526 | -0.0526 | -0.0526 |
| Alpha ($) | $-43 | $-43 | $-43 | $-43 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -8.4% | -8.4% | -8.4% | -8.4% |
| Contrarian score | 0.042 | 0.042 | 0.042 | 0.042 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0364 | -0.0364 | -0.0364 | -0.0364 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Scalper: 58.7%
- Tilted Gambler: 44.5%
- News Sniper: 42.1%
- Contrarian Fader: 25.4%
- Conviction Holder: 20.0%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 2.58e-5; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0x084f6697c5… entry 0.240
- 0xf6566a1681… entry 0.277 timing 0.80
- 0xd28861bc16… entry 0.222 timing 0.96
- 0x624a253393… entry 0.226 timing 0.67
- 0x421114a079… entry 0.167 timing 0.70
- 0xa0bc014d85… entry 0.185 timing 0.25