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0x8546a601f7c7cc3dae7141f20b0e09e42bbf35b8
Secondary: Early-Bird Forecaster
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 3314 with median hold 0.6 hours, maker share only 52%.
Capital velocity 3.0 and held-to-resolution 65% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
A close second label is Early-Bird Forecaster, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:05:16 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $22.7k | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $21k | $10.7k | $28.9k | $28.9k |
| Win rate | 92% | 85% | 78% | 78% |
| ROI | 37% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.418 | 0.256 | 0.220 |
| Markets | 12 | 31 | 183 | 284 |
| Best day | $177 | $20.9k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 6.83 | 1.64 | 2.28 | 2.28 |
| Mean trade PnL | $1.75k | $314 | $289 | $289 |
| Median trade PnL | $19 | $17 | $16 | $16 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.62 | 0.28 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Largest win | $24.1k | $24.1k | $24.1k | $24.1k |
| Largest loss | $-3.6k | $-12.9k | $-12.9k | $-12.9k |
| Expectancy | $1.75k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $7.78k | $5.36k | $4.12k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | N/A | 0.155 | 0.162 |
| Calmar | 3.852 | 3.852 | 3.852 | 3.852 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 86% | 55% | 33% | 33% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 96% | 74% | 74% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 99% | 87% | 87% |
| Max win streak | 8 | 12 | 16 | 16 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 235 | 571 | 2325 | 3314 |
| Unique markets | 12 | 31 | 183 | 284 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 86% | 80% | 83% |
| Avg entry price | 0.420 | 0.600 | 0.673 | 0.674 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.350 | 0.123 | 0.024 | 0.016 |
| Maker share (notional) | 61% | 60% | 49% | 52% |
| Two-sided share | 17% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Max concurrent | 8 | 24 | 129 | 197 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.66 | 0.46 | 1.03 | 1.11 |
| Add-to-winner share | 100% | 80% | 73% | 72% |
| Average-down share | 0% | 17% | 26% | 27% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.70 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 70% | 68% | 66% | 65% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.1549 | 0.0814 | 0.1341 | 0.1341 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.0807 | 0.0975 | 0.1379 | 0.1379 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.140 | 0.115 | 0.233 | 0.233 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-1.91k | $-1.08k | $-66 | $-66 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | -8.1% | -0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0328 | -0.0328 | -0.0328 | -0.0328 |
| Alpha ($) | $400 | $400 | $400 | $400 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| Contrarian score | 0.089 | 0.089 | 0.089 | 0.089 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0237 | -0.0237 | -0.0237 | -0.0237 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
| $20.9k |
| $20.9k |
| Worst day | $177 | $0 | $-12k | $-12k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $314 |
| $289 |
| $289 |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| 100% |
| 100% |
| 100% |
| 0% |
| 0.10–0.40 | 100% | 88% | 80% | 80% | 9% |
| 0.40–0.60 | 100% | 100% | 60% | 60% | 5% |
| 0.60–0.90 | 86% | 81% | 76% | 76% | 43% |
| >0.90 | 100% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 43% |
| 23% |
| 21% |
| 20% |
| Spread capture | -0.0253 | -0.0109 | -0.0212 | -0.0221 |
| Inventory turnover | 235.00 | 571.00 | 2325.00 | 3314.00 |
| Capital velocity | 1.48 | 1.55 | 2.41 | 3.03 |
| Avg ticket | $354 | $318 | $333 | $293 |
| Median ticket | $22 | $20 | $29 | $28 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -41.80 | 20.95 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.21 |
| 1.32 |
| 1.50 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Tennis | $26.6k | 83% | 66 |
| Sports | $2.31k | 68% | 34 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa9295da6… | $24.1k | $19k | 127.2% |
| 0xbadd20c2… | $-12.9k | $20.1k | -64.0% |
| 0xe6fb74ef… | $8.08k | $20.2k | 40.0% |
| 0xdeb3400a… | $6.42k | $17.2k | 37.3% |
| 0xefdbe24f… | $-3.6k | $23.1k | -15.6% |
| 0x1fc42114… | $3.01k | $7.04k | 42.8% |
| 0x17680418… | $-2.21k | $4.63k | -47.9% |
| 0xc8a02f1d… | $-1.86k | $14.9k | -12.4% |
| 0x2a0e8ce7… | $1.22k | $13.6k | 9.0% |
| 0x1d89c866… | $1.21k | $13.1k | 9.2% |
| 0x540bc90d… | $947 | $18k | 5.3% |
| 0x8800d6a1… | $-866 | $4.75k | -18.2% |
| 0xf246eb16… | $828 | $11k | 7.5% |
| 0xf67b7e9d… | $561 | $18.8k | 3.0% |
| 0xdf3505f0… | $518 | $8.2k | 6.3% |
| 145 |
| 145 |
| 145 |
| 145 |