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0x7d2f…ef1a
0x7d2f82da7ae8c910bd1e89475be705d313daef1a
Secondary: Tilted Gambler
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 14411 with median hold 4.5 hours, maker share only 78%.
Capital velocity 1.7 and held-to-resolution 37% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
A close second label is Tilted Gambler, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 11:58:07 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$127k
Open PnL
$-733k
Max drawdown
$170k
Underwater days
269
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $25.4k | $138k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $42k | $459k | $862k |
| Win rate | N/A | 75% | 88% | 55% |
| ROI | N/A | 43% | 71% | 34% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.666 | 0.318 | 0.034 |
| Markets | 6 | 14 | 76 | 863 |
| Best day | N/A | $10 |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 36.04 | 166.94 | 3.44 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | $10.5k | $9.98k | $1.09k |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | $70 | $4.58k | $1 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 12.01 | 23.85 | 2.81 |
| Largest win | N/A | $43.1k | $55.4k | $55.4k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-1.2k | $-1.2k | $-35.3k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | N/A | $25.9k | $9.81k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 2.925 | 0.447 | 0.036 |
| Calmar | 0.749 | 0.749 | 0.749 | 0.749 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | 97% | 12% | 4% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | 100% | 42% | 13% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | 100% | 68% | 22% |
| Max win streak | 1 | 5 | 22 | 27 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 85 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 200 | 610 | 4545 | 14411 |
| Unique markets | 6 | 14 | 76 | 863 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 67% | 87% | 76% |
| Avg entry price | 0.330 | 0.324 | 0.530 | 0.548 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.421 | 0.310 | 0.028 | 0.005 |
| Maker share (notional) | 70% | 88% | 90% | 78% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 5.4 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 14.9 |
| Holding time median (h) | 5.4 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Max concurrent | 1 | 4 | 28 | 328 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.98 | 0.45 | 0.97 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | 92% | 49% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | 4% | 30% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.32 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 33% | 36% | 38% | 37% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.2552 | 0.1596 | 0.1997 | 0.1973 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.1864 | 0.2406 | 0.2362 | 0.2195 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.933 | 0.941 | 0.740 | 0.841 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-10k | $-2.12k | $-2.97k | $-210 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | -5.7% | -27.1% | -22.5% | -5.0% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0386 | -0.0386 | -0.0386 | -0.0386 |
| Alpha ($) | $-17 | $-17 | $-17 | $-17 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -8.0% | -8.0% | -8.0% | -8.0% |
| Contrarian score | 0.181 | 0.181 | 0.181 | 0.181 |
| Post-fill drift | 0.0072 | 0.0072 | 0.0072 | 0.0072 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Scalper: 57.0%
- Tilted Gambler: 54.7%
- News Sniper: 54.6%
- Longshot Hunter: 21.9%
- Conviction Holder: 15.3%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 3.83e-4; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0x4cec48c401… entry 0.290 timing 1.00
- 0x3488f31e64… entry 0.270
- 0xb982a477dd… entry 0.230 timing 0.99
- 0x972114f919… entry 0.170 timing 0.98