0x7d24…a93f

0x7d249aa60d2be7ed0b477df0e22f9caf9791a93f

Tilted GamblerGrade DStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.

Tilt ratio is 24.79 and disposition ratio 1.18, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.

Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 43.6), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 12:05:33 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$69.1k

Open PnL

$-26.8k

Max drawdown

$7.78k

Underwater days

207

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	N/A	N/A	$45.6k	N/A
Realized PnL	$1.93k	$-15.2k	$73.9k	$87.3k
Win rate	25%	46%	18%	26%
ROI	328%	-21%	37%	36%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	0.022	0.291	0.104
Markets	20	74	168	2980
Best day	$89	$301

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	8.71	0.30	2.45	2.49
Mean trade PnL	$481	$-1.17k	$347	$291
Median trade PnL	$-76	$-28	$-8	$-8
Payoff ratio	26.14	0.35	10.93	7.22
Largest win	$2.17k	$2.17k	$60.4k	$60.4k
Largest loss	$-97	$-21.1k	$-21.1k	$-21.1k
Expectancy	$481

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$165	$5.29k	$1.69k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	0.020	3.764	0.271
Calmar	8.882	8.882	8.882	8.882
Drawdown duration (days)	16.0	16.0	16.0	16.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	90%	74%	46%	40%
Concentration top-5	100%	94%	73%	67%
Concentration top-10	100%	100%	78%	74%
Max win streak	1	3	7	7
Max loss streak	3	4	61	61

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	136	450	1641	13713
Unique markets	20	74	168	2980
Active days ratio	200%	114%	103%	74%
Avg entry price	0.004	0.138	0.071	0.064
Portfolio HHI	0.095	0.116	0.143	0.020
Maker share (notional)	100%	99%	100%	87%
Two-sided share	0%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	1.5	16.5	151.0	554.3
Holding time median (h)	1.5	23.6	102.9	368.1
Max concurrent	7	17	105	1489
Disposition ratio	N/A	N/A	0.09	1.18
Add-to-winner share	22%	64%	70%	55%
Average-down share	56%	29%	21%	39%
Tilt ratio	0.77

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	31%	10%	56%	77%
Brier (weighted)	0.4190	0.2521	0.1978	0.1978
Brier (unweighted)	0.1898	0.3495	0.0276	0.0324
Entry timing mean	N/A	0.695	0.887	0.760
Exit quality ($)	$3	$6.04k	$514	$479
Exit quality ROI gap	3.6%	13.3%	34.1%	34.3%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	-0.1599	-0.1599	-0.1599	-0.1599
Alpha ($)	$-13	$-13	$-13	$-13
Alpha ROI gap	-6.4%	-6.4%	-6.4%	-6.4%
Contrarian score	-0.019	-0.019	-0.019	-0.019
Post-fill drift	-0.0333	-0.0333	-0.0333	-0.0333
Post-fill candles (mean)	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Tilted Gambler: 71.8%
Conviction Holder: 51.2%
Contrarian Fader: 51.1%
News Sniper: 43.8%
Longshot Hunter: 42.5%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 1.74e-96; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xd961e85c58… entry 0.024 timing 0.03
0x86e8f678e6… entry 0.042 timing 0.03
0x7976b8dbac… entry 0.017 timing 0.58
0x0c4cd2055d… entry 0.017 timing 0.61
0x375409bc5e… entry 0.017 timing 0.60
0x7b52405ad0… entry 0.017 timing 0.57
0xa24c185482… entry 0.020 timing 0.11
0x13e1cc703a… entry 0.033 timing 0.62
0x6680cae9b3… entry 0.020 timing 0.53
0x78547b8ae1… entry 0.020 timing 0.53
0xe202539dfb… entry 0.033 timing 0.62
0xe4a523f525… entry 0.013 timing 0.59
0x8a743d2c48… entry 0.013 timing 0.52
0x960d14b187… entry 0.024 timing 0.32
0x4264ed4b4c… entry 0.013 timing 0.53
0xb4431b4a10… entry 0.013 timing 0.48
0x624517215c… entry 0.013 timing 0.55
0xe29b33ef5b… entry 0.008 timing 0.29
0xc4435df23f… entry 0.008 timing 0.29

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0x7d24…a93f

0x7d249aa60d2be7ed0b477df0e22f9caf9791a93f

This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.

Tilt ratio is 24.79 and disposition ratio 1.18, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.

Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 43.6), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

N/A

$45.6k

N/A

Realized PnL

$1.93k

$-15.2k

$73.9k

$87.3k

Win rate

25%

46%

18%

26%

ROI

328%

-21%

37%

36%

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.022

0.291

0.104

Markets

168

2980

Best day

$89

$301

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

8.71

0.30

2.45

2.49

Mean trade PnL

$481

$-1.17k

$347

$291

Median trade PnL

$-76

$-28

$-8

Payoff ratio

26.14

0.35

10.93

7.22

Largest win

$2.17k

$60.4k

Largest loss

$-97

$-21.1k

Expectancy

$481

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$165

$5.29k

$1.69k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

0.020

3.764

0.271

Calmar

8.882

Drawdown duration (days)

16.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

90%

74%

46%

40%

Concentration top-5

100%

94%

73%

67%

Concentration top-10

100%

78%

74%

Max win streak

Max loss streak

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

136

450

1641

13713

Unique markets

168

2980

Active days ratio

200%

114%

103%

74%

Avg entry price

0.004

0.138

0.071

0.064

Portfolio HHI

0.095

0.116

0.143

0.020

Maker share (notional)

100%

99%

100%

87%

Two-sided share

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

1.5

16.5

151.0

554.3

Holding time median (h)

1.5

23.6

102.9

368.1

Max concurrent

105

1489

Disposition ratio

N/A

0.09

1.18

Add-to-winner share

22%

64%

70%

55%

Average-down share

56%

29%

21%

39%

Tilt ratio

0.77

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

31%

10%

56%

77%

Brier (weighted)

0.4190

0.2521

0.1978

Brier (unweighted)

0.1898

0.3495

0.0276

0.0324

Entry timing mean

N/A

0.695

0.887

0.760

Exit quality ($)

$6.04k

$514

$479

Exit quality ROI gap

3.6%

13.3%

34.1%

34.3%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

-0.1599

Alpha ($)

$-13

Alpha ROI gap

-6.4%

Contrarian score

-0.019

Post-fill drift

-0.0333

Post-fill candles (mean)

6.0

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Tilted Gambler: 71.8%

Conviction Holder: 51.2%

Contrarian Fader: 51.1%

News Sniper: 43.8%

Longshot Hunter: 42.5%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 1.74e-96; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xd961e85c58… entry 0.024 timing 0.03
0x86e8f678e6… entry 0.042 timing 0.03
0x7976b8dbac… entry 0.017 timing 0.58
0x0c4cd2055d… entry 0.017 timing 0.61
0x375409bc5e… entry 0.017 timing 0.60
0x7b52405ad0… entry 0.017 timing 0.57
0xa24c185482… entry 0.020 timing 0.11
0x13e1cc703a… entry 0.033 timing 0.62
0x6680cae9b3… entry 0.020 timing 0.53
0x78547b8ae1… entry 0.020 timing 0.53
0xe202539dfb… entry 0.033 timing 0.62
0xe4a523f525… entry 0.013 timing 0.59
0x8a743d2c48… entry 0.013 timing 0.52
0x960d14b187… entry 0.024 timing 0.32
0x4264ed4b4c… entry 0.013 timing 0.53
0xb4431b4a10… entry 0.013 timing 0.48
0x624517215c… entry 0.013 timing 0.55
0xe29b33ef5b… entry 0.008 timing 0.29
0xc4435df23f… entry 0.008 timing 0.29

Sports	$77.6k	26%	103
EPL	$3.85k	67%	3
2026 FIFA World Cup	$2.23k	32%	53
UCL	$1.72k	100%	2
Eurovision	$1.35k	100%	2
Soccer	$1.25k	50%	20
Tech	$-497	14%	21
PGA	$-448	0%	54
baseball	$429	100%	2
Continental Futures	$176	43%	7
French Election	$-174	0%	1
Colombia Election	$-95	0%	3

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x9b6fef24…	$39.3k	$132k	29.8%
0x0c4cd205…	$18.2k	$2.31k	787.5%
0x7976b8db…	$17.9k	$7.71k	232.7%
0x375409bc…	$13.3k	$2.31k	575.9%
0xa4d72632…	$6.48k	$8k	81.0%
0xf02d8d72…	$2.75k	$3k	91.7%
0x7b52405a…	$2.35k	$2.31k	101.5%
0x12e12585…	$2.17k	$325	669.2%
0x22e7b5e3…	$-2.17k	$12k	-18.1%
0xb6b3d7a2…	$2.08k	$10.4k	19.9%
0x30d55d81…	$1.45k	$1.5k	96.7%
0x282ce6c9…	$1.43k	$1.5k	95.2%
0x86e8f678…	$1.13k	$250	452.0%
0xf7b5491e…	$1.11k	$475	233.9%
0x13e1cc70…	$976	$1.05k	92.8%

0x7d24…a93f

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0x7d24…a93f

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

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