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0x7bc14171ccb0d3e6bac219ec6a76211826e28db4
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 6.13 and disposition ratio 0.01, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 124177.8), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 11:58:42 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $3.68k | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $3.8k | $-55.5k | $82k | $583k |
| Win rate | 67% | 50% | 58% | 67% |
| ROI | 21% | -14% | 3% | 11% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.091 | 0.009 | 0.154 |
| Markets | 9 | 33 | 76 | 76 |
| Best day | $-36.6k | $16.8k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 24.12 | 0.23 | 1.28 | 2.74 |
| Mean trade PnL | $1.27k | $-3.96k | $1.49k | $6.62k |
| Median trade PnL | $1.7k | $5 | $38 | $360 |
| Payoff ratio | 12.06 | 0.23 | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| Largest win | $2.27k | $5.77k | $122k | $371k |
| Largest loss | $-164 | $-44.9k | $-60.9k | $-60.9k |
| Expectancy | $1.27k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $17.6k | $30.3k | $55.7k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.291 | -0.061 | 0.009 | 0.291 |
| Calmar | 3.557 | 3.557 | 3.557 | 3.557 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 55% | 50% | 18% | 30% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 83% | 61% | 58% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 98% | 85% | 77% |
| Max win streak | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 401 | 1761 | 20431 | 20431 |
| Unique markets | 9 | 33 | 76 | 76 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 106% | 106% |
| Avg entry price | 0.216 | 0.280 | 0.405 | 0.405 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.366 | 0.117 | 0.127 | 0.127 |
| Maker share (notional) | 39% | 54% | 36% | 36% |
| Two-sided share | 33% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 0.6 | 2.8 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Max concurrent | 8 | 27 | 43 | 43 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.54 | 2.46 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Add-to-winner share | 67% | 78% | 45% | 45% |
| Average-down share | 33% | 11% | 51% | 51% |
| Tilt ratio | 12.55 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 100% | 62% | 63% | 63% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.0025 | 0.0451 | 0.0400 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.0991 | 0.1530 | 0.1493 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.976 | 0.945 | 0.917 | 0.917 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $-7.26k | $-3.36k | $-247 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | 4.2% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0747 | -0.0747 | -0.0747 | -0.0747 |
| Alpha ($) | $50 | $50 | $50 | $50 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Contrarian score | 0.061 | 0.061 | 0.061 | 0.061 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0018 | -0.0018 | -0.0018 | -0.0018 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations | 18591 |
Joint probability 5.82e-6; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
| $93.3k |
| $276k |
| Worst day | $-36.6k | $-36.6k | $-80k | $-80k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $-3.96k |
| $1.49k |
| $6.62k |
| <0.10 |
| 100% |
| 33% |
| 50% |
| 44% |
| 1% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | 67% | 69% | 73% | 5% |
| 0.40–0.60 | 0% | 50% | 64% | 70% | 7% |
| 0.60–0.90 | 100% | 33% | 40% | 53% | 45% |
| >0.90 | N/A | 67% | 60% | 79% | 42% |
| 21% |
| 13% |
| 13% |
| Spread capture | -0.0140 | 0.0048 | -0.0097 | -0.0097 |
| Inventory turnover | 401.00 | 1761.00 | 20431.00 | 20431.00 |
| Capital velocity | 9.84 | 1.73 | 0.61 | 0.33 |
| Avg ticket | $444 | $385 | $85 | $85 |
| Median ticket | $8 | $1 | $0 | $0 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -8809.00 | -8809.00 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.29 |
| 7.72 |
| 6.13 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Iran | $378k | 75% | 4 |
| Sports | $86.4k | 71% | 17 |
| South Korea Elections | $70.5k | 100% | 2 |
| Trump | $-31.5k | 0% | 3 |
| Peru | $26.4k | 50% | 4 |
| Elections | $22k | 83% | 6 |
| primary elections | $19.3k | 60% | 5 |
| Wimbledon | $15.9k | 100% | 1 |
| UK | $15.2k | 100% | 2 |
| Politics | $8.47k | 82% | 11 |
| NBA | $-7.95k | 50% | 2 |
| Soccer | $-7k | 50% | 4 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd86a8160… | $371k | $1.35M | 27.4% |
| 0x017f7984… | $122k | $61.1k | 200.0% |
| 0x0c4cd205… | $85.6k | $67.7k | 126.5% |
| 0x1b1a75d6… | $62k | $63.1k | 98.3% |
| 0xdac6e67b… | $-60.9k | $183k | -33.3% |
| 0x48e6e510… | $-60.9k | $61.1k | -99.7% |
| 0x375409bc… | $-44.9k | $90.2k | -49.7% |
| 0xc4c3dbcc… | $31.8k | $443k | 7.2% |
| 0x9d3f0226… | $-31.5k | $35.9k | -87.5% |
| 0xf471786c… | $17.3k | $53.3k | 32.4% |
| 0x66190368… | $-16.3k | $154k | -10.6% |
| 0x55d02472… | $16.3k | $71.2k | 22.8% |
| 0xb9a3276c… | $15.9k | $47.6k | 33.3% |
| 0xbee2cd40… | $15k | $9.26k | 162.0% |
| 0xfbae01b3… | $14.3k | $52.8k | 27.0% |
| 18591 |
| 18591 |
| 18591 |