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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0x7bbf…7ce5 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0x7bbf…7ce5 0X
0x7bbf…7ce5 0x7bbf09fc724e3ca90332e17d4f352b3cbc0f7ce5
This wallet is categorized as a Contrarian Fader because fills lean against recent price moves and it averages down.
Contrarian score is -0.27 (negative = buying against recent moves) with average-down share 39%.
Holds stretch longer (median 4.3 days) while waiting for reversion.
Separately, skill grade F scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:19:22 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A $20.6k N/A N/A Realized PnL $1.71k $1.71k $1.71k $1.71k Win rate 60% 60% 60% 60% ROI 40% 40% 40% 40% Sharpe (daily) N/A 1.830 0.715 0.206 Markets 551 2750 4299 7019 Best day $-35 $5.06k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 Mean trade PnL $5 $5 $5 $5 Median trade PnL $2 $2 $2 $2 Payoff ratio 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Largest win $175 $175 $175 $175 Largest loss $-79 $-79 $-79 $-79 Expectancy $5
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $1.63k $1.59k $512 Sortino (daily) N/A N/A 1.484 0.485 Calmar 24.664 24.664 24.664 24.664 Drawdown duration (days) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 6% 6% 6% 6% Concentration top-5 15% 15% 15% 15% Concentration top-10 22% 22% 22% 22% Max win streak 12 12 12 12 Max loss streak 7 7 7 7
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 1441 8591 15663 44847 Unique markets 551 2750 4299 7019 Active days ratio 200% 114% 67% 83% Avg entry price 0.140 0.141 0.117 0.080 Portfolio HHI 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.005 Maker share (notional) 97% 95% 96% 95% Two-sided share 0%
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) 8.8 38.1 71.1 276.0 Holding time median (h) 8.7 38.3 38.8 103.7 Max concurrent 444 2165 3595 6286 Disposition ratio 0.54 1.01 0.98 0.88 Add-to-winner share 54% 56% 56% 56% Average-down share 32% 35% 37% 39% Tilt ratio
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 37% 66% 77% 84% Brier (weighted) 0.3107 0.3107 0.3107 0.3107 Brier (unweighted) 0.4400 0.4400 0.4400 0.4400 Entry timing mean 0.423 0.422 0.490 0.552 Exit quality ($) $-6 $-6 $-6 $-6 Exit quality ROI gap -184.8% -184.8% -184.8% -184.8%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean -0.0634 -0.0634 -0.0634 -0.0634 Alpha ($) $-20 $-20 $-20 $-20 Alpha ROI gap -23.5% -23.5% -23.5% -23.5% Contrarian score -0.267 -0.267 -0.267 -0.267 Post-fill drift 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014 Post-fill candles (mean) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Post-fill observations
Archetype scores Contrarian Fader: 55.6% Scalper: 46.9% Early-Bird Forecaster: 45.4% Conviction Holder: 44.6% Tilted Gambler: 30.0% Worst day $-35 $-35 $-1.58k $-1.58k
0.60–0.90 100% 100% 100% 100% 0%
Spread capture -0.0083 0.0010 0.0007 -0.0021
Inventory turnover 1441.00 8591.00 15663.00 44847.00
Capital velocity 0.59 4.51 8.25 26.74
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A 693.60 39.94
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Weather $1.18k 59% 277 Sports $298 90% 20 WNBA $149 67% 3 Music $69 100% 3 Culture $62 50% 6 CPI $-59 40% 5 TV $-29 0% 1 Oil $-29 67% 3 Esports $25 100% 2 Alaska Midterm $-21 0% 6 ECB $21 50% 2 Primaries $18 100% 1
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0xcb3a9d3e… $175 $200 87.5% 0x3783c40d… $-79 $80 -98.4% 0xdf654c72… $66 $100 65.8% 0x1e43a5c8… $60 $100 60.0% 0xa8bf4f84… $55 $150 36.9% 0x0a7df5d1… $50 $150 33.0% 0x240d68ff… $-39 $40 -97.9% 0x6cbd2ff4… $38 $80 47.6% 0xdb88bf08… $38 $40 93.9% 0xab285be9… $-35 $36 -98.0% 0x93f7fd56… $-34 $36 -96.2% 0x41407b74… $33 $40 81.8% 0xfebf0a90… $33 $40 81.8% 0x997c746e… $-31 $36 -87.3% 0xb4166539… $-29 $30 -97.6%
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