0x7abe…b47e

0x7abe2e7eac6f63b1bf4c21eeae71b03e9bd9b47e

Conviction HolderGrade DStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

Secondary: Early-Bird Forecaster

This wallet is categorized as a Conviction Holder because it concentrates in few markets and holds for long stretches.

Median hold is 3.6 days with held-to-resolution 76% and portfolio HHI 0.01.

Trade count stays relatively low (15701) while add-to-winner share is 87%, favoring concentrating rather than spraying fills.

A close second label is Early-Bird Forecaster, so the book also shows some of that style.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

Updated 2026-07-19 11:56:01 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$616k

Open PnL

Max drawdown

$675k

Underwater days

213

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	N/A	N/A	N/A	$616k
Realized PnL	$0	$0	$0	$650k
Win rate	N/A	N/A	N/A	72%
ROI	N/A	N/A	N/A	1%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.028
Markets	0	0	0	1727
Best day	$0	$0

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	N/A	N/A	N/A	1.09
Mean trade PnL	N/A	N/A	N/A	$314
Median trade PnL	N/A	N/A	N/A	$1
Payoff ratio	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.42
Largest win	N/A	N/A	N/A	$205k
Largest loss	N/A	N/A	N/A	$-230k
Expectancy	N/A

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	N/A	N/A	$53.6k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.023
Calmar	0.913	0.913	0.913	0.913
Drawdown duration (days)	21.0	21.0	21.0	21.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	N/A	N/A	N/A	2%
Concentration top-5	N/A	N/A	N/A	7%
Concentration top-10	N/A	N/A	N/A	13%
Max win streak	N/A	N/A	N/A	88
Max loss streak	N/A	N/A	N/A	35

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	0	0	0	15701
Unique markets	0	0	0	1727
Active days ratio	N/A	N/A	N/A	56%
Avg entry price	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.628
Portfolio HHI	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.007
Maker share (notional)	N/A	N/A	N/A	70%
Two-sided share	N/A

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	N/A	N/A	N/A	750.4
Holding time median (h)	N/A	N/A	N/A	86.8
Max concurrent	N/A	N/A	N/A	1338
Disposition ratio	N/A	N/A	N/A	1.17
Add-to-winner share	N/A	N/A	N/A	87%
Average-down share	N/A	N/A	N/A	9%
Tilt ratio	N/A

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	N/A	N/A	N/A	76%
Brier (weighted)	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.1639
Brier (unweighted)	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.0678
Entry timing mean	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.492
Exit quality ($)	N/A	N/A	N/A	$-4
Exit quality ROI gap	N/A	N/A	N/A	90.7%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	-0.0737	-0.0737	-0.0737	-0.0737
Alpha ($)	$-20.7k	$-20.7k	$-20.7k	$-20.7k
Alpha ROI gap	-47.9%	-47.9%	-47.9%	-47.9%
Contrarian score	-0.067	-0.067	-0.067	-0.067
Post-fill drift	-0.0347	-0.0347	-0.0347	-0.0347
Post-fill candles (mean)	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Conviction Holder: 46.2%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 45.6%
Tilted Gambler: 34.8%
News Sniper: 34.2%
Scalper: 32.7%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 1.04e-38; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xb91be12388… entry 0.007 timing 0.19
0x20d0bc2825… entry 0.007 timing 0.18
0x98933c78b5… entry 0.007 timing 0.18
0xe84b1fdc08… entry 0.261 timing 0.62
0xd599ca0754… entry 0.005 timing 0.48
0xeb3d516233… entry 0.166 timing 0.36
0x0aa8d6a6c8… entry 0.166 timing 0.74
0xa5f1b6f8a1… entry 0.199 timing 0.96
0x7b6e85e03e… entry 0.166 timing 0.99
0x9df72373cc… entry 0.015 timing 0.96
0x4767932f05… entry 0.199 timing 0.99
0x2b57ed983e… entry 0.039 timing 0.40
0x6797a66f38… entry 0.199 timing 0.90
0x7cab9da787… entry 0.037 timing 0.09
0xd02f8e3b72… entry 0.037 timing 0.10
0x93470d9db3… entry 0.067 timing 0.63
0x7525341716… entry 0.235 timing 1.00
0xa5b2c13483… entry 0.083
0x1517c57749… entry 0.045 timing 1.00

Open share card

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0x7abe…b47e

0x7abe2e7eac6f63b1bf4c21eeae71b03e9bd9b47e

Secondary: Early-Bird Forecaster

This wallet is categorized as a Conviction Holder because it concentrates in few markets and holds for long stretches.

Median hold is 3.6 days with held-to-resolution 76% and portfolio HHI 0.01.

Trade count stays relatively low (15701) while add-to-winner share is 87%, favoring concentrating rather than spraying fills.

A close second label is Early-Bird Forecaster, so the book also shows some of that style.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

N/A

$616k

Realized PnL

$650k

Win rate

N/A

72%

ROI

N/A

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.028

Markets

1727

Best day

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

N/A

1.09

Mean trade PnL

N/A

$314

Median trade PnL

N/A

Payoff ratio

N/A

0.42

Largest win

N/A

$205k

Largest loss

N/A

$-230k

Expectancy

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$53.6k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

0.023

Calmar

0.913

Drawdown duration (days)

21.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

N/A

Concentration top-5

N/A

Concentration top-10

N/A

13%

Max win streak

N/A

Max loss streak

N/A

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

15701

Unique markets

1727

Active days ratio

N/A

56%

Avg entry price

N/A

0.628

Portfolio HHI

N/A

0.007

Maker share (notional)

N/A

70%

Two-sided share

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

N/A

750.4

Holding time median (h)

N/A

86.8

Max concurrent

N/A

1338

Disposition ratio

N/A

1.17

Add-to-winner share

N/A

87%

Average-down share

N/A

Tilt ratio

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

N/A

76%

Brier (weighted)

N/A

0.1639

Brier (unweighted)

N/A

0.0678

Entry timing mean

N/A

0.492

Exit quality ($)

N/A

$-4

Exit quality ROI gap

N/A

90.7%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

-0.0737

Alpha ($)

$-20.7k

Alpha ROI gap

-47.9%

Contrarian score

-0.067

Post-fill drift

-0.0347

Post-fill candles (mean)

5.5

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Conviction Holder: 46.2%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 45.6%

Tilted Gambler: 34.8%

News Sniper: 34.2%

Scalper: 32.7%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 1.04e-38; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xb91be12388… entry 0.007 timing 0.19
0x20d0bc2825… entry 0.007 timing 0.18
0x98933c78b5… entry 0.007 timing 0.18
0xe84b1fdc08… entry 0.261 timing 0.62
0xd599ca0754… entry 0.005 timing 0.48
0xeb3d516233… entry 0.166 timing 0.36
0x0aa8d6a6c8… entry 0.166 timing 0.74
0xa5f1b6f8a1… entry 0.199 timing 0.96
0x7b6e85e03e… entry 0.166 timing 0.99
0x9df72373cc… entry 0.015 timing 0.96
0x4767932f05… entry 0.199 timing 0.99
0x2b57ed983e… entry 0.039 timing 0.40
0x6797a66f38… entry 0.199 timing 0.90
0x7cab9da787… entry 0.037 timing 0.09
0xd02f8e3b72… entry 0.037 timing 0.10
0x93470d9db3… entry 0.067 timing 0.63
0x7525341716… entry 0.235 timing 1.00
0xa5b2c13483… entry 0.083
0x1517c57749… entry 0.045 timing 1.00

NBA	$280k	100%	8
Tennis	$163k	21%	91
NHL	$69.3k	60%	5
Crypto	$65.6k	100%	7
Sports	$-60.4k	79%	1367
Soccer	$40k	93%	14
Games	$32.7k	80%	10
United States	$13.4k	45%	47
Golf	$10.3k	65%	105
Fed Rates	$9.77k	72%	25
Culture	$8.51k	20%	83
Bitcoin	$8.07k	100%	4

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x5695d99b…	$-230k	$230k	-100.0%
0x70c32782…	$-208k	$208k	-100.0%
0xf9e5621b…	$205k	$334k	61.3%
0x11e34c4a…	$-204k	$204k	-100.0%
0x1e97827f…	$-187k	$187k	-100.0%
0xfa9ea6e8…	$-185k	$185k	-100.0%
0x02beb4a2…	$-185k	$185k	-100.0%
0xa6ed1312…	$-179k	$179k	-100.0%
0xf2a89afe…	$177k	$690k	25.6%
0x173ef5c1…	$165k	$354k	46.6%
0x3eb9e380…	$-152k	$186k	-81.6%
0x4165ce9b…	$-148k	$177k	-83.6%
0x587536de…	$143k	$297k	48.1%
0x96826d3e…	$140k	$185k	75.9%
0x25fef7a0…	$138k	$150k	92.3%

0x7abe…b47e

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0x7abe…b47e

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

Hour of day (UTC)

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