0x6db9…4ab5

0x6db983ff1cbc85249e64e6ccd101aaa613ba4ab5

Tilted GamblerGrade CStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.

Tilt ratio is 2.37 and disposition ratio 2.47, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.

Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 209.7), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 11:45:48 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$56.8k

Open PnL

$-165k

Max drawdown

$130k

Underwater days

168

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	$1.36k	N/A	$97.5k	N/A
Realized PnL	$0	$2.52k	$-35.5k	$147k
Win rate	N/A	67%	83%	85%
ROI	N/A	6%	-9%	16%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	0.377	0.082	0.018
Markets	18	49	147	959
Best day	N/A	$3.04k

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	N/A	1.26	0.66	2.19
Mean trade PnL	N/A	$210	$-433	$393
Median trade PnL	N/A	$39	$66	$70
Payoff ratio	N/A	0.63	0.14	0.38
Largest win	N/A	$5.23k	$12k	$21.2k
Largest loss	N/A	$-3.7k	$-92.9k	$-92.9k
Expectancy	N/A

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	N/A	$35.3k	$10.9k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	0.633	0.167	0.036
Calmar	0.437	0.437	0.437	0.437
Drawdown duration (days)	34.0	34.0	34.0	34.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	N/A	36%	53%	24%
Concentration top-5	N/A	99%	75%	40%
Concentration top-10	N/A	100%	86%	52%
Max win streak	3	4	25	57
Max loss streak	1	2	3	3

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	442	1163	12347	25757
Unique markets	18	49	147	959
Active days ratio	200%	114%	103%	73%
Avg entry price	0.217	0.192	0.017	0.024
Portfolio HHI	0.372	0.152	0.063	0.023
Maker share (notional)	98%	85%	70%	59%
Two-sided share	11%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	1.3	32.6	102.6	305.9
Holding time median (h)	2.0	36.4	74.8	76.8
Max concurrent	4	18	91	730
Disposition ratio	N/A	125.70	2.79	2.47
Add-to-winner share	79%	63%	85%	78%
Average-down share	10%	36%	11%	20%
Tilt ratio	0.87

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	0%	13%	63%	76%
Brier (weighted)	0.0160	0.1092	0.0753	0.0927
Brier (unweighted)	0.1177	0.1952	0.0925	0.1634
Entry timing mean	0.956	0.941	0.957	0.875
Exit quality ($)	$-19	$1.43k	$778	$41
Exit quality ROI gap	-1.1%	-7.9%	7.5%	-4.9%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	-0.0063	-0.0063	-0.0063	-0.0063
Alpha ($)	$-28	$-28	$-28	$-28
Alpha ROI gap	-16.6%	-16.6%	-16.6%	-16.6%
Contrarian score	-0.048	-0.048	-0.048	-0.048
Post-fill drift	-0.0013	-0.0013	-0.0013	-0.0013
Post-fill candles (mean)	5.9	5.9	5.9	5.9
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Tilted Gambler: 72.2%
Favorite Grinder: 61.3%
Scalper: 47.3%
Conviction Holder: 44.6%
News Sniper: 44.4%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 2.36e-16; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x8cf61b7b84… entry 0.280 timing 0.67
0xf4e3ed7607… entry 0.114
0x2bc15e9a7c… entry 0.209 timing 0.97
0xda27a1ef32… entry 0.199 timing 0.75
0xbf9bb424df… entry 0.243 timing 0.82
0xefb4d37ec6… entry 0.240 timing 0.80
0x69f98d7105… entry 0.167 timing 0.60
0xe546672750… entry 0.260 timing 0.08
0x5a6c4378df… entry 0.260 timing 0.15
0x2dc87336b7… entry 0.190 timing 0.91
0x8ca781cf34… entry 0.250 timing 0.22
0x17a2466c34… entry 0.038 timing 0.86
0x99e1c58ebd… entry 0.204 timing 0.89
0xe8f3195c87… entry 0.170 timing 0.84
0x09a23aa4ec… entry 0.100 timing 0.95
0x065bec39cc… entry 0.210 timing 0.96
0x21c3ebd6f0… entry 0.210 timing 0.06

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0x6db9…4ab5

0x6db983ff1cbc85249e64e6ccd101aaa613ba4ab5

This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.

Tilt ratio is 2.37 and disposition ratio 2.47, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.

Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 209.7), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

$1.36k

N/A

$97.5k

N/A

Realized PnL

$2.52k

$-35.5k

$147k

Win rate

N/A

67%

83%

85%

ROI

N/A

-9%

16%

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.377

0.082

0.018

Markets

147

959

Best day

N/A

$3.04k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

N/A

1.26

0.66

2.19

Mean trade PnL

N/A

$210

$-433

$393

Median trade PnL

N/A

$39

$66

$70

Payoff ratio

N/A

0.63

0.14

0.38

Largest win

N/A

$5.23k

$12k

$21.2k

Largest loss

N/A

$-3.7k

$-92.9k

Expectancy

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$35.3k

$10.9k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

0.633

0.167

0.036

Calmar

0.437

Drawdown duration (days)

34.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

N/A

36%

53%

24%

Concentration top-5

N/A

99%

75%

40%

Concentration top-10

N/A

100%

86%

52%

Max win streak

Max loss streak

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

442

1163

12347

25757

Unique markets

147

959

Active days ratio

200%

114%

103%

73%

Avg entry price

0.217

0.192

0.017

0.024

Portfolio HHI

0.372

0.152

0.063

0.023

Maker share (notional)

98%

85%

70%

59%

Two-sided share

11%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

1.3

32.6

102.6

305.9

Holding time median (h)

2.0

36.4

74.8

76.8

Max concurrent

730

Disposition ratio

N/A

125.70

2.79

2.47

Add-to-winner share

79%

63%

85%

78%

Average-down share

10%

36%

11%

20%

Tilt ratio

0.87

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

13%

63%

76%

Brier (weighted)

0.0160

0.1092

0.0753

0.0927

Brier (unweighted)

0.1177

0.1952

0.0925

0.1634

Entry timing mean

0.956

0.941

0.957

0.875

Exit quality ($)

$-19

$1.43k

$778

$41

Exit quality ROI gap

-1.1%

-7.9%

7.5%

-4.9%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

-0.0063

Alpha ($)

$-28

Alpha ROI gap

-16.6%

Contrarian score

-0.048

Post-fill drift

-0.0013

Post-fill candles (mean)

5.9

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Tilted Gambler: 72.2%

Favorite Grinder: 61.3%

Scalper: 47.3%

Conviction Holder: 44.6%

News Sniper: 44.4%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 2.36e-16; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x8cf61b7b84… entry 0.280 timing 0.67
0xf4e3ed7607… entry 0.114
0x2bc15e9a7c… entry 0.209 timing 0.97
0xda27a1ef32… entry 0.199 timing 0.75
0xbf9bb424df… entry 0.243 timing 0.82
0xefb4d37ec6… entry 0.240 timing 0.80
0x69f98d7105… entry 0.167 timing 0.60
0xe546672750… entry 0.260 timing 0.08
0x5a6c4378df… entry 0.260 timing 0.15
0x2dc87336b7… entry 0.190 timing 0.91
0x8ca781cf34… entry 0.250 timing 0.22
0x17a2466c34… entry 0.038 timing 0.86
0x99e1c58ebd… entry 0.204 timing 0.89
0xe8f3195c87… entry 0.170 timing 0.84
0x09a23aa4ec… entry 0.100 timing 0.95
0x065bec39cc… entry 0.210 timing 0.96
0x21c3ebd6f0… entry 0.210 timing 0.06

Culture	$24.6k	90%	29
Sports	$24.3k	90%	123
Eurovision	$21.6k	80%	35
Music	$17k	89%	19
Geopolitics	$7.63k	100%	4
2026 FIFA World Cup	$7.25k	82%	45
Malta	$6.29k	100%	7
putin	$5.86k	100%	1
Soccer	$5.12k	87%	15
Politics	$4.94k	79%	14
Bitcoin	$3.4k	100%	6
UFC	$3.26k	100%	1

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x9b6fef24…	$-92.8k	$126k	-73.8%
0x9c55cf66…	$21.2k	$3.22k	659.2%
0xefb4d37e…	$16.8k	$5.32k	315.9%
0x1de846b4…	$15.3k	$7.22k	211.4%
0x7f481c96…	$12k	$34.7k	34.5%
0xff081c52…	$11.6k	$2.03k	570.6%
0x7b52405a…	$11.2k	$13.9k	80.5%
0x739e7561…	$9.82k	$9.05k	108.5%
0x23e817f3…	$7.17k	$3.22k	222.6%
0xcba24842…	$-6.49k	$6.54k	-99.1%
0x0891e479…	$6.18k	$14.8k	41.8%
0x62ba158e…	$5.86k	$3.25k	180.0%
0x135096de…	$5.8k	$5.02k	115.4%
0xd8c3fff5…	$5.7k	$1.34k	426.0%
0x5ccfe1b6…	$5.58k	$16.8k	33.2%

0x6db9…4ab5

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0x6db9…4ab5

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

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