0x68c2…1711

0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711

Early-Bird ForecasterGrade CStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

Secondary: Conviction Holder

This wallet is categorized as an Early-Bird Forecaster because it enters early and often holds positions through resolution.

Mean entry timing is early (0.49 of market life) and 82% of resolved inventory is still held at settle.

Turnover stays low (14503.0), so the book looks like patient forecast positions rather than flow trading.

A close second label is Conviction Holder, so the book also shows some of that style.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

Updated 2026-07-19 11:51:48 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$514k

Open PnL

$30.7k

Max drawdown

$270k

Underwater days

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	N/A	$26.1k	N/A	$513k
Realized PnL	$175	$3.55k	$-82.4k	$456k
Win rate	100%	100%	55%	62%
ROI	4%	23%	-30%	5%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	1.030	0.029	0.067
Markets	3	35	107	836
Best day	$-155	$8.73k

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	N/A	N/A	0.35	1.52
Mean trade PnL	$175	$443	$-716	$153
Median trade PnL	$175	$192	$5	$14
Payoff ratio	N/A	N/A	0.29	0.91
Largest win	$175	$1.35k	$13.1k	$56.5k
Largest loss	N/A	N/A	$-77.9k	$-77.9k
Expectancy	$175

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$3.71k	$4.65k	$10.9k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	3.811	0.027	0.083
Calmar	1.607	1.607	1.607	1.607
Drawdown duration (days)	56.5	56.5	56.5	56.5

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	100%	38%	46%	4%
Concentration top-5	100%	96%	69%	12%
Concentration top-10	100%	100%	79%	19%
Max win streak	1	8	20	56
Max loss streak	N/A	N/A	23	23

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	7	369	1425	14503
Unique markets	3	35	107	836
Active days ratio	200%	114%	103%	99%
Avg entry price	0.448	0.220	0.126	0.288
Portfolio HHI	0.450	0.324	0.087	0.018
Maker share (notional)	77%	37%	44%	33%
Two-sided share	0%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	N/A	21.3	85.9	262.2
Holding time median (h)	N/A	0.7	41.1	107.7
Max concurrent	3	31	84	690
Disposition ratio	N/A	0.00	2.55	0.56
Add-to-winner share	100%	83%	73%	70%
Average-down share	0%	11%	23%	28%
Tilt ratio	N/A

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	N/A	83%	73%	82%
Brier (weighted)	N/A	0.1408	0.0950	0.1212
Brier (unweighted)	N/A	0.2330	0.1494	0.1450
Entry timing mean	0.402	0.568	0.713	0.493
Exit quality ($)	N/A	$-798	$272	$-25
Exit quality ROI gap	N/A	-4.5%	-103.4%	-31.8%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	0.0694	0.0694	0.0694	0.0694
Alpha ($)	$10.1k	$10.1k	$10.1k	$10.1k
Alpha ROI gap	-14.2%	-14.2%	-14.2%	-14.2%
Contrarian score	0.275	0.275	0.275	0.275
Post-fill drift	0.0009	0.0009	0.0009	0.0009
Post-fill candles (mean)	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Early-Bird Forecaster: 48.6%
Conviction Holder: 47.5%
Scalper: 46.8%
Tilted Gambler: 30.0%
Favorite Grinder: 23.1%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x6d1616688c… entry 0.006 timing 0.43
0xca2059450e… entry 0.004
0xdd3e026a07… entry 0.030 timing 0.36
0x291ff8aa0b… entry 0.283 timing 0.87
0x059db22dae… entry 0.224 timing 0.31
0x6bf0cbc093… entry 0.060 timing 0.03
0xfce5fb1312… entry 0.190 timing 0.93
0x15fa6bf8e2… entry 0.255
0xe34380896d… entry 0.152 timing 0.55
0xbd5922eed5… entry 0.010
0x01aaece056… entry 0.180 timing 0.94
0x1d6519817a… entry 0.103 timing 0.84
0x3941412b11… entry 0.062 timing 0.84
0x747dc809fb… entry 0.180
0x807ba575f8… entry 0.084 timing 0.22
0x7fec9ca2aa… entry 0.060 timing 0.35
0xd18ed6ef65… entry 0.245 timing 0.40
0xa92f4d6dda… entry 0.170 timing 0.84
0x221aed804f… entry 0.050

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0x68c2…1711

0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711

Secondary: Conviction Holder

This wallet is categorized as an Early-Bird Forecaster because it enters early and often holds positions through resolution.

Mean entry timing is early (0.49 of market life) and 82% of resolved inventory is still held at settle.

Turnover stays low (14503.0), so the book looks like patient forecast positions rather than flow trading.

A close second label is Conviction Holder, so the book also shows some of that style.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

N/A

$26.1k

N/A

$513k

Realized PnL

$175

$3.55k

$-82.4k

$456k

Win rate

100%

55%

62%

ROI

23%

-30%

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

1.030

0.029

0.067

Markets

107

836

Best day

$-155

$8.73k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

N/A

0.35

1.52

Mean trade PnL

$175

$443

$-716

$153

Median trade PnL

$175

$192

$14

Payoff ratio

N/A

0.29

0.91

Largest win

$175

$1.35k

$13.1k

$56.5k

Largest loss

N/A

$-77.9k

Expectancy

$175

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$3.71k

$4.65k

$10.9k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

3.811

0.027

0.083

Calmar

1.607

Drawdown duration (days)

56.5

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

100%

38%

46%

Concentration top-5

100%

96%

69%

12%

Concentration top-10

100%

79%

19%

Max win streak

Max loss streak

N/A

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

369

1425

14503

Unique markets

107

836

Active days ratio

200%

114%

103%

99%

Avg entry price

0.448

0.220

0.126

0.288

Portfolio HHI

0.450

0.324

0.087

0.018

Maker share (notional)

77%

37%

44%

33%

Two-sided share

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

N/A

21.3

85.9

262.2

Holding time median (h)

N/A

0.7

41.1

107.7

Max concurrent

690

Disposition ratio

N/A

0.00

2.55

0.56

Add-to-winner share

100%

83%

73%

70%

Average-down share

11%

23%

28%

Tilt ratio

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

N/A

83%

73%

82%

Brier (weighted)

N/A

0.1408

0.0950

0.1212

Brier (unweighted)

N/A

0.2330

0.1494

0.1450

Entry timing mean

0.402

0.568

0.713

0.493

Exit quality ($)

N/A

$-798

$272

$-25

Exit quality ROI gap

N/A

-4.5%

-103.4%

-31.8%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

0.0694

Alpha ($)

$10.1k

Alpha ROI gap

-14.2%

Contrarian score

0.275

Post-fill drift

0.0009

Post-fill candles (mean)

6.0

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Early-Bird Forecaster: 48.6%

Conviction Holder: 47.5%

Scalper: 46.8%

Tilted Gambler: 30.0%

Favorite Grinder: 23.1%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x6d1616688c… entry 0.006 timing 0.43
0xca2059450e… entry 0.004
0xdd3e026a07… entry 0.030 timing 0.36
0x291ff8aa0b… entry 0.283 timing 0.87
0x059db22dae… entry 0.224 timing 0.31
0x6bf0cbc093… entry 0.060 timing 0.03
0xfce5fb1312… entry 0.190 timing 0.93
0x15fa6bf8e2… entry 0.255
0xe34380896d… entry 0.152 timing 0.55
0xbd5922eed5… entry 0.010
0x01aaece056… entry 0.180 timing 0.94
0x1d6519817a… entry 0.103 timing 0.84
0x3941412b11… entry 0.062 timing 0.84
0x747dc809fb… entry 0.180
0x807ba575f8… entry 0.084 timing 0.22
0x7fec9ca2aa… entry 0.060 timing 0.35
0xd18ed6ef65… entry 0.245 timing 0.40
0xa92f4d6dda… entry 0.170 timing 0.84
0x221aed804f… entry 0.050

Politics	$108k	70%	656
transit	$-81.5k	0%	2
Parent For Derivative	$81.2k	73%	73
Iran	$71.2k	65%	140
Trump Presidency	$69.2k	65%	191
Economy	$-46k	54%	39
fomc	$25.9k	64%	14
Trump	$25.4k	64%	284
Middle East	$17.5k	67%	27
Ukraine	$16.7k	64%	25
Biden	$15.9k	52%	21
Margin of Victory	$13.8k	18%	11

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x348cd9ad…	$-77.9k	$99.8k	-78.0%
0xd86a8160…	$56.5k	$21.9k	257.9%
0x0e4a0c93…	$-43.8k	$195k	-22.4%
0xceb6dfaa…	$36.3k	$73.3k	49.5%
0x8ee2f164…	$-35.3k	$30.9k	-114.4%
0x518a5b03…	$-33.3k	$45.4k	-73.3%
0xcb111226…	$30.9k	$37.9k	81.6%
0x5f060d4e…	$-30.8k	$31.2k	-98.7%
0x546ec332…	$27k	$24.9k	108.6%
0x077fc0c4…	$-26.1k	$28k	-93.2%
0x2cbfefb1…	$-22k	$31.2k	-70.4%
0x57f90c89…	$20.4k	$2.55k	802.2%
0x75ac86fe…	$20.1k	$40.1k	50.2%
0xfdcd333f…	$19.8k	$5.22k	378.6%
0xacac1a4b…	$18.9k	$19.2k	98.6%

0x68c2…1711

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0x68c2…1711

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

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