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0x614d…1546
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
Secondary: Scalper
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 1.42 and disposition ratio 2.64, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 40.7), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 11:43:08 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$520k
Open PnL
$37.3k
Max drawdown
$103k
Underwater days
87
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $520k |
| Realized PnL | $-44.3k | $-45.6k | $-18.1k | $467k |
| Win rate | 0% | 45% | 67% | 67% |
| ROI | -78% | -61% | -3% | 4% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.790 | -0.298 | 0.082 |
| Markets | 2 | 9 | 45 | 1879 |
| Best day | $-898 | $3.28k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.79 | 1.44 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-11.1k | $-4.14k | $-370 | $215 |
| Median trade PnL | $-2.42k | $-89 | $120 | $64 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 0.02 | 0.38 | 0.72 |
| Largest win | N/A | $320 | $16.7k | $74.2k |
| Largest loss | $-39.3k | $-39.3k | $-39.3k | $-46.2k |
| Expectancy | $-11.1k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $3.74k | $10.1k | $9.06k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.570 | -0.207 | 0.086 |
| Calmar | 4.354 | 4.354 | 4.354 | 4.354 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 89% | 84% | 26% | 3% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 98% | 62% | 12% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 82% | 18% |
| Max win streak | N/A | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Max loss streak | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 28 | 126 | 707 | 34699 |
| Unique markets | 2 | 9 | 45 | 1879 |
| Active days ratio | 100% | 60% | 66% | 81% |
| Avg entry price | 0.862 | 0.432 | 0.691 | 0.590 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.545 | 0.228 | 0.087 | 0.004 |
| Maker share (notional) | 71% | 76% | 41% | 44% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 0.3 | 1.0 | 19.4 | 226.8 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 26.5 |
| Max concurrent | 2 | 7 | 34 | 1294 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.28 | 0.37 | 2.64 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | 92% | 53% | 68% |
| Average-down share | N/A | 0% | 45% | 30% |
| Tilt ratio | 1.57 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | 71% | 73% | 66% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.6073 | 0.4753 | 0.1003 | 0.0877 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.2525 | 0.1317 | 0.0951 | 0.1378 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | 0.684 | 0.519 |
| Exit quality ($) | $3.18k | $1.28k | $-281 | $115 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 6.1% | 17.7% | 5.7% | -0.5% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0285 | 0.0285 | 0.0285 | 0.0285 |
| Alpha ($) | $-1.59k | $-1.59k | $-1.59k | $-1.59k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -39.3% | -39.3% | -39.3% | -39.3% |
| Contrarian score | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.071 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0028 | -0.0028 | -0.0028 | -0.0028 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 54.8%
- Scalper: 52.9%
- Favorite Grinder: 46.9%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 38.9%
- News Sniper: 34.0%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 1.48e-12; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0x2d7631c0ab… entry 0.180
- 0x12587fe0cd… entry 0.180 timing 0.07
- 0xa3d646330c… entry 0.190 timing 0.32
- 0x21149909e8… entry 0.049 timing 0.39
- 0xe689a93e42… entry 0.100
- 0x87a28fbadd… entry 0.130
- 0xc97f02a523… entry 0.140 timing 0.02
- 0x73ee1b44e1… entry 0.236 timing 0.25
- 0x2ec6879749… entry 0.293 timing 0.68
- 0x2836fd16f9… entry 0.240 timing 0.07
- 0x4cc6a973e9… entry 0.275 timing 0.65
- 0xd9ea0651c6… entry 0.285 timing 0.14
- 0xaeb8bf4529… entry 0.075 timing 0.06
- 0x51bd8218c9… entry 0.191
- 0x072378e203… entry 0.290 timing 0.88