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0x607fec58640fcea5cb837adb09d658747720592c
Secondary: Early-Bird Forecaster
This wallet is categorized as a Longshot Hunter because most of its notional sits in cheap longshot outcomes.
33% of closed cost sits under 10¢, so win rate is low (71%) while payoff ratio runs hot (445.5).
PnL volatility 26666 reflects lumpy longshot outcomes rather than steady grinding.
A close second label is Early-Bird Forecaster, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade F scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 11:25:42 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $427k |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $0 | $427k |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | N/A | 71% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 256% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.104 |
| Markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Best day | $0 | $0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1113.63 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $30.5k |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $1.07k |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 445.45 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | N/A | $303k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-200 |
| Expectancy | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | N/A | N/A | $26.7k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.883 |
| Calmar | 39.173 | 39.173 | 39.173 | 39.173 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 71% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 99% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 100% |
| Max win streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1443 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 58% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.193 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.292 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 44% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 69.7 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 20.7 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | N/A | 13 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.11 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 93% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | N/A | 63% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.4875 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.3284 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.329 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-21.4k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | N/A | -29.6% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.3547 | -0.3547 | -0.3547 | -0.3547 |
| Alpha ($) | $19.9k | $19.9k | $19.9k | $19.9k |
| Alpha ROI gap | 170.5% | 170.5% | 170.5% | 170.5% |
| Contrarian score | -0.430 | -0.430 | -0.430 | -0.430 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0058 | -0.0058 | -0.0058 | -0.0058 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
| $0 |
| $325k |
| Worst day | $0 | $0 | $0 | $-8.08k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| N/A |
| N/A |
| $30.5k |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 75% |
| 33% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 67% | 18% |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 100% | 47% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 50% | 2% |
| >0.90 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0% |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 0% |
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.0076 |
| Inventory turnover | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1443.00 |
| Capital velocity | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.59 |
| Avg ticket | N/A | N/A | N/A | $184 |
| Median ticket | N/A | N/A | N/A | $4 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | N/A | -315.00 |
| Quiet weeks | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 0.08 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Parent For Derivative | $423k | 88% | 8 |
| Reza Pahlavi | $2.62k | 100% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | $1.77k | 100% | 1 |
| Awards | $-200 | 0% | 1 |
| Davos | $-150 | 0% | 1 |
| Trump-Machado | $-12 | 0% | 1 |
| Politics | $2 | 100% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3488f31e… | $303k | $52.3k | 578.2% |
| 0x4b02efe5… | $74.2k | $65.1k | 114.0% |
| 0x98c0aa27… | $28.4k | $16.2k | 175.0% |
| 0x797d586a… | $15.6k | $12.9k | 121.1% |
| 0xbb4d51e6… | $2.62k | $6.64k | 39.4% |
| 0x100f4c96… | $1.77k | $3.78k | 47.0% |
| 0x70909f0b… | $1.57k | $5.99k | 26.2% |
| 0xf7ebe673… | $564 | $677 | 83.3% |
| 0xe1c67f75… | $278 | $1.33k | 20.9% |
| 0x962e5b22… | $-200 | $600 | -33.3% |
| 0x890fc3ba… | $-150 | $950 | -15.8% |
| 0x1b9cfd14… | $-22 | $179 | -12.5% |
| 0xa01d48a9… | $-12 | $71 | -16.4% |
| 0xd9fb1184… | $2 | $220 | 0.9% |
| 1443 |
| 1443 |
| 1443 |
| 1443 |