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0x5c14eb6a6d5083c003daa8241ed559d2dc82cc49
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
58% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (88%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.34).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 11:20:35 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $26.3k | $47.3k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $18.1k | $18.1k | $21.3k | $64.9k |
| Win rate | 100% | 100% | 87% | 88% |
| ROI | 83% | 83% | 20% | 2% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.490 | 0.387 | 0.076 |
| Markets | 3 | 5 | 20 | 249 |
| Best day | $992 | $20.6k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | 100.44 | 2.47 |
| Mean trade PnL | $9.07k | $9.07k | $1.42k | $267 |
| Median trade PnL | $9.07k | $9.07k | $165 | $21 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | 15.45 | 0.34 |
| Largest win | $15.7k | $15.7k | $15.7k | $15.7k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | $-194 | $-20.8k |
| Expectancy | $9.07k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $7.47k | $4.34k | $2.56k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | N/A | 0.645 | 0.064 |
| Calmar | 1.622 | 1.622 | 1.622 | 1.622 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 72.0 | 72.0 | 72.0 | 72.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 87% | 87% | 72% | 14% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 100% | 94% | 42% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 58% |
| Max win streak | 2 | 2 | 6 | 51 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | 1 | 8 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 23 | 28 | 115 | 2720 |
| Unique markets | 3 | 5 | 20 | 249 |
| Active days ratio | 100% | 43% | 57% | 35% |
| Avg entry price | 0.690 | 0.680 | 0.740 | 0.824 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.519 | 0.511 | 0.162 | 0.014 |
| Maker share (notional) | 27% | 28% | 30% | 20% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | 142.7 | 357.0 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | 218.2 | 51.5 |
| Max concurrent | 2 | 4 | 15 | 215 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.12 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | 0% | 17% | 56% |
| Average-down share | N/A | 33% | 8% | 39% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | 100% | 85% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.1029 | 0.0751 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.1027 | 0.1071 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.316 | 0.396 | 0.399 | 0.579 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | $916 | $661 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | 10.3% | 40.4% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0336 | -0.0336 | -0.0336 | -0.0336 |
| Alpha ($) | $-348 | $-348 | $-348 | $-348 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.4% |
| Contrarian score | -0.008 | -0.008 | -0.008 | -0.008 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0109 | -0.0109 | -0.0109 | -0.0109 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Joint probability 1.33e-7; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
| $20.6k |
| $20.6k |
| Worst day | $992 | $378 | $-5.31k | $-33.3k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $9.07k |
| $1.42k |
| $267 |
| <0.10 |
| 100% |
| 100% |
| 100% |
| 54% |
| 0% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | N/A | 100% | 47% | 0% |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | N/A | 0% | 50% | 33% |
| 0.60–0.90 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 89% | 8% |
| >0.90 | N/A | N/A | 88% | 96% | 58% |
| 0% |
| 0% |
| N/A |
| Spread capture | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | -0.0136 | N/A |
| Inventory turnover | 23.00 | 28.00 | 115.00 | 2720.00 |
| Capital velocity | 1.32 | 1.33 | 0.89 | 0.81 |
| Avg ticket | $1.26k | $1.04k | $839 | $884 |
| Median ticket | $14 | $22 | $24 | $16 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | 1.70 | 0.46 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| N/A |
| 3.11 |
| 1.13 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Politics | $31.7k | 95% | 38 |
| Geopolitics | $27.1k | 100% | 25 |
| HFC | $-20.8k | 0% | 1 |
| Culture | $12.3k | 82% | 49 |
| Tech | $-10k | 77% | 31 |
| Ukraine | $6.77k | 100% | 7 |
| Iran | $4.33k | 100% | 4 |
| Climate & Science | $2.45k | 100% | 1 |
| maduro | $1.68k | 83% | 12 |
| Israel | $1.42k | 100% | 1 |
| Reza Pahlavi | $1.2k | 100% | 1 |
| shah | $941 | 100% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa467b14d… | $-20.8k | $29.6k | -70.4% |
| 0x5c79dfde… | $15.7k | $4.59k | 342.2% |
| 0x850c1624… | $14.1k | $25.4k | 55.4% |
| 0x8ee2f164… | $7.28k | $45.5k | 16.0% |
| 0x14a5086a… | $6.55k | $8.1k | 80.9% |
| 0x5412ae25… | $5.9k | $50k | 11.8% |
| 0xa175b848… | $-5.05k | $3.51k | -143.9% |
| 0x72e8c6bc… | $-4.73k | $6.04k | -78.2% |
| 0x87d87e2d… | $4.26k | $12.5k | 34.1% |
| 0x4decc84c… | $4.25k | $9.92k | 42.9% |
| 0x3c6bcb7d… | $3.54k | $10.1k | 35.1% |
| 0xb4c1d4cc… | $-2.49k | $2.49k | -100.0% |
| 0x9215b2e1… | $-2.48k | $3k | -82.8% |
| 0xe96dbace… | $2.45k | $17.3k | 14.2% |
| 0xd8abd2e1… | $2.39k | $23.1k | 10.3% |
| 256 |
| 256 |
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