0x58b3…653c

0x58b3380f71bd6c706dd398a5e60bde55fa3a653c

News SniperGrade CStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a News Sniper because activity comes in bursts and entries arrive late in the market lifecycle.

Weekly activity shows 37 quiet weeks between spikes, and mean entry timing is 0.82 into the market life (later = closer to resolution).

Holds stay short (median 3.4 days), matching event-driven rather than early forecasting.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 11:21:38 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$99.5k

Open PnL

$-701k

Max drawdown

$574k

Underwater days

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	$12.9k	$144k	$51.5k	N/A
Realized PnL	$0	$235k	$379k	∞
Win rate	N/A	36%	61%	64%
ROI	N/A	47%	53%	37%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	0.109	0.065	0.008
Markets	24	94	419	1103
Best day	N/A	$63.6k

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	N/A	8.85	10.13	2.27
Mean trade PnL	N/A	$3.99k	$2.23k	$2.03k
Median trade PnL	N/A	$-42	$88	$6
Payoff ratio	N/A	16.01	6.55	1.30
Largest win	N/A	$173k	$173k	∞
Largest loss	N/A	$-7.06k	$-7.06k	$-430k
Expectancy	N/A

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	N/A	$21.4k	$31.6k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	0.465	0.084	0.005
Calmar	0.173	0.173	0.173	0.173
Drawdown duration (days)	71.5	71.5	71.5	71.5

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	N/A	59%	37%	38%
Concentration top-5	N/A	91%	68%	72%
Concentration top-10	N/A	98%	76%	79%
Max win streak	2	8	20	33
Max loss streak	5	9	9	25

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	1110	4301	9953	25788
Unique markets	24	94	419	1103
Active days ratio	200%	114%	97%	31%
Avg entry price	0.118	0.149	0.133	0.102
Portfolio HHI	0.501	0.285	0.076	0.033
Maker share (notional)	63%	74%	48%	54%
Two-sided share	8%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	5.5	28.6	96.6	255.7
Holding time median (h)	4.3	13.6	60.9	82.8
Max concurrent	23	80	371	941
Disposition ratio	1.10	3.37	0.67	0.44
Add-to-winner share	66%	64%	58%	58%
Average-down share	25%	31%	38%	37%
Tilt ratio	1.07

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	100%	93%	86%	82%
Brier (weighted)	0.9197	0.2694	0.2731	0.1255
Brier (unweighted)	0.9197	0.1821	0.2594	0.1795
Entry timing mean	0.979	0.919	0.901	0.823
Exit quality ($)	$0	$1.9k	$562	$2.53k
Exit quality ROI gap	0.0%	79.5%	34.1%	51.4%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	-0.0019	-0.0019	-0.0019	-0.0019
Alpha ($)	$-5	$-5	$-5	$-5
Alpha ROI gap	-3.2%	-3.2%	-3.2%	-3.2%
Contrarian score	0.128	0.128	0.128	0.128
Post-fill drift	0.0003	0.0003	0.0003	0.0003
Post-fill candles (mean)	5.7	5.7	5.7	5.7
Post-fill observations	290

Archetype scores

News Sniper: 63.9%
Tilted Gambler: 44.5%
Conviction Holder: 42.5%
Scalper: 37.5%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 33.4%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 9.30e-59; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xaf12bd1a9e… entry 0.265 timing 0.47
0x15f8f202d1… entry 0.020 timing 0.77
0xde72dd287b… entry 0.028 timing 0.47
0x33dc6492ec… entry 0.083 timing 0.99
0x9fac5f062a… entry 0.083 timing 0.96
0xadb240c244… entry 0.083 timing 0.96
0xa15cb0f6fa… entry 0.083 timing 0.98
0xe879103830… entry 0.280 timing 0.37
0xe7c3a08a29… entry 0.258 timing 0.37
0x81a9bf420a… entry 0.259 timing 0.28
0x7f05f24b33… entry 0.256 timing 1.00
0x746f53249e… entry 0.150 timing 0.99
0xb7176efbfd… entry 0.260 timing 0.22
0x3490c26e6b… entry 0.190 timing 0.72
0xaabc22dec5… entry 0.184
0xfeea934c78… entry 0.180 timing 0.12
0xd546089cc3… entry 0.200 timing 1.00
0x33763a5cb2… entry 0.230 timing 0.02
0xb34cfbf00a… entry 0.210 timing 0.45

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0x58b3…653c

0x58b3380f71bd6c706dd398a5e60bde55fa3a653c

This wallet is categorized as a News Sniper because activity comes in bursts and entries arrive late in the market lifecycle.

Weekly activity shows 37 quiet weeks between spikes, and mean entry timing is 0.82 into the market life (later = closer to resolution).

Holds stay short (median 3.4 days), matching event-driven rather than early forecasting.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

$12.9k

$144k

$51.5k

N/A

Realized PnL

$235k

$379k

∞

Win rate

N/A

36%

61%

64%

ROI

N/A

47%

53%

37%

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.109

0.065

0.008

Markets

419

1103

Best day

N/A

$63.6k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

N/A

8.85

10.13

2.27

Mean trade PnL

N/A

$3.99k

$2.23k

$2.03k

Median trade PnL

N/A

$-42

$88

Payoff ratio

N/A

16.01

6.55

1.30

Largest win

N/A

$173k

∞

Largest loss

N/A

$-7.06k

$-430k

Expectancy

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$21.4k

$31.6k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

0.465

0.084

0.005

Calmar

0.173

Drawdown duration (days)

71.5

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

N/A

59%

37%

38%

Concentration top-5

N/A

91%

68%

72%

Concentration top-10

N/A

98%

76%

79%

Max win streak

Max loss streak

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

1110

4301

9953

25788

Unique markets

419

1103

Active days ratio

200%

114%

97%

31%

Avg entry price

0.118

0.149

0.133

0.102

Portfolio HHI

0.501

0.285

0.076

0.033

Maker share (notional)

63%

74%

48%

54%

Two-sided share

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

5.5

28.6

96.6

255.7

Holding time median (h)

4.3

13.6

60.9

82.8

Max concurrent

371

941

Disposition ratio

1.10

3.37

0.67

0.44

Add-to-winner share

66%

64%

58%

Average-down share

25%

31%

38%

37%

Tilt ratio

1.07

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

100%

93%

86%

82%

Brier (weighted)

0.9197

0.2694

0.2731

0.1255

Brier (unweighted)

0.9197

0.1821

0.2594

0.1795

Entry timing mean

0.979

0.919

0.901

0.823

Exit quality ($)

$1.9k

$562

$2.53k

Exit quality ROI gap

0.0%

79.5%

34.1%

51.4%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

-0.0019

Alpha ($)

$-5

Alpha ROI gap

-3.2%

Contrarian score

0.128

Post-fill drift

0.0003

Post-fill candles (mean)

5.7

Post-fill observations

290

Archetype scores

News Sniper: 63.9%

Tilted Gambler: 44.5%

Conviction Holder: 42.5%

Scalper: 37.5%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 33.4%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 9.30e-59; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xaf12bd1a9e… entry 0.265 timing 0.47
0x15f8f202d1… entry 0.020 timing 0.77
0xde72dd287b… entry 0.028 timing 0.47
0x33dc6492ec… entry 0.083 timing 0.99
0x9fac5f062a… entry 0.083 timing 0.96
0xadb240c244… entry 0.083 timing 0.96
0xa15cb0f6fa… entry 0.083 timing 0.98
0xe879103830… entry 0.280 timing 0.37
0xe7c3a08a29… entry 0.258 timing 0.37
0x81a9bf420a… entry 0.259 timing 0.28
0x7f05f24b33… entry 0.256 timing 1.00
0x746f53249e… entry 0.150 timing 0.99
0xb7176efbfd… entry 0.260 timing 0.22
0x3490c26e6b… entry 0.190 timing 0.72
0xaabc22dec5… entry 0.184
0xfeea934c78… entry 0.180 timing 0.12
0xd546089cc3… entry 0.200 timing 1.00
0x33763a5cb2… entry 0.230 timing 0.02
0xb34cfbf00a… entry 0.210 timing 0.45

fomc	$434k	67%	9
Tennis	$275k	81%	187
2026 FIFA World Cup	$230k	80%	5
Politics	$109k	50%	6
Wimbledon	$75.9k	65%	34
Peru	$67.7k	50%	16
Sports	$60.4k	52%	102
Crypto	$38.8k	80%	30
Awards	$5.88k	62%	26
Hungary Election	$-4.47k	17%	12
Ethereum	$3.86k	75%	16
Continental Futures	$3.79k	38%	8

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x36e8ca24…	$1.29M	$3.46k	37391.3%
0xd4d00e5b…	$-430k	$432k	-99.4%
0x0d14f5dc…	$-429k	$432k	-99.3%
0xd2a8caba…	$173k	$302k	57.1%
0x1480b819…	$97.1k	$118k	82.0%
0xfa021d81…	$56k	$86.2k	65.1%
0xc4c3dbcc…	$48.2k	$45.5k	106.0%
0x16b3e96f…	$46.7k	$65k	71.8%
0x8bf1c153…	$24.9k	$6.42k	386.9%
0x5ec80dc4…	$19.9k	$597k	3.3%
0x9dde2865…	$16.6k	$8.94k	185.4%
0x3561a95d…	$14.6k	$13.5k	108.4%
0xb1f2c55d…	$14.5k	$11.7k	124.2%
0x2cd24d17…	$14.2k	$102k	13.8%
0x987b4cb7…	$9.46k	$1.23k	769.4%

0x58b3…653c

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0x58b3…653c

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

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