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0x5452…d448
0x54525ee78bd513b0bf75f94e560158f6fc35d448
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 7.63 and disposition ratio 0.27, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 141.5), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 11:21:20 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$218k
Open PnL
$-94k
Max drawdown
$96.4k
Underwater days
335
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $1.14k | N/A | $85.3k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $-4.08k | $32.8k | $130k | $130k |
| Win rate | 67% | 84% | 91% | 91% |
| ROI | -1% | 3% | 7% | 7% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.014 | 0.247 | 0.060 |
| Markets | 35 | 89 | 971 | 3042 |
| Best day | $691 | $10.5k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.93 | 1.49 | 2.77 | 2.77 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-117 | $372 | $519 | $519 |
| Median trade PnL | $15 | $73 | $56 | $56 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.47 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Largest win | $16.6k | $22.3k | $22.3k | $22.3k |
| Largest loss | $-16.7k | $-16.7k | $-16.7k | $-16.7k |
| Expectancy | $-117 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $8.26k | $12.6k | $6.44k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.062 | 0.062 | 0.269 | 0.056 |
| Calmar | 2.264 | 2.264 | 2.264 | 2.264 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 137.0 | 137.0 | 137.0 | 137.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 28% | 20% | 12% | 12% |
| Concentration top-5 | 81% | 66% | 42% | 42% |
| Concentration top-10 | 99% | 85% | 63% | 63% |
| Max win streak | 10 | 25 | 56 | 56 |
| Max loss streak | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 335 | 1107 | 12674 | 48233 |
| Unique markets | 35 | 89 | 971 | 3042 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 103% | 59% |
| Avg entry price | 0.635 | 0.439 | 0.198 | 0.171 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.086 | 0.042 | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Maker share (notional) | 94% | 91% | 90% | 77% |
| Two-sided share | 6% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.8 | 31.8 | 20.0 | 507.4 |
| Holding time median (h) | 1.3 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 71.3 |
| Max concurrent | 6 | 21 | 155 | 1479 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.42 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| Add-to-winner share | 100% | 57% | 44% | 65% |
| Average-down share | 0% | 19% | 13% | 26% |
| Tilt ratio | 2.08 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 22% | 23% | 18% | 30% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.0789 | 0.0285 | 0.0508 | 0.0508 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.2387 | 0.1086 | 0.0909 | 0.0909 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.859 | 0.902 | 0.938 | 0.585 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-381 | $300 | $142 | $142 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 21.0% | 8.5% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0024 | -0.0024 | -0.0024 | -0.0024 |
| Alpha ($) | $-598 | $-598 | $-598 | $-598 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| Contrarian score | 0.201 | 0.201 | 0.201 | 0.201 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0037 | -0.0037 | -0.0037 | -0.0037 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 70.0%
- Favorite Grinder: 58.1%
- News Sniper: 57.8%
- Scalper: 50.7%
- Conviction Holder: 24.5%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 4.64e-9; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0xf78d593533… entry 0.059
- 0xea3a43cfe4… entry 0.059
- 0xff981ecb33… entry 0.059
- 0xfbd6368257… entry 0.036 timing 0.78
- 0x08db488b3e… entry 0.036
- 0xf137d500be… entry 0.036 timing 0.42