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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0x5268…135d · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0x5268…135d 0X
0x5268…135d 0x5268527977f700f9bf9b6d5cd843859e4e70135d
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 3.50 and disposition ratio 0.88, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 96.8), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 11:01:50 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A $186k $451k ∞ Realized PnL $93.8k $267k $595k $595k Win rate 55% 55% 54% 54% ROI 5% 4% 2% 2% Sharpe (daily) N/A 0.528 0.088 0.233 Markets 321 1065 1065 1065 Best day $29.8k $113k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor 1.16 1.11 1.05 1.05 Mean trade PnL $218 $110 $60 $60 Median trade PnL $2 $1 $2 $2 Payoff ratio 0.94 0.91 0.90 0.90 Largest win $67.9k $67.9k $103k $103k Largest loss $-69.6k $-70.6k $-160k $-160k Expectancy $218
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $49.3k $66.6k $68.8k Sortino (daily) 0.238 1.069 0.082 0.238 Calmar 4.174 4.174 4.174 4.174 Drawdown duration (days) 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 8% 2% 1% 1% Concentration top-5 30% 9% 3% 3% Concentration top-10 46% 15% 5% 5% Max win streak 4 6 9 9 Max loss streak 3 4 5 5
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 3780 14265 14265 14265 Unique markets 321 1065 1065 1065 Active days ratio 200% 120% 120% 120% Avg entry price 0.541 0.525 0.525 0.525 Portfolio HHI 0.023 0.007 0.007 0.007 Maker share (notional) 52% 52% 52% 52% Two-sided share 60%
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 Holding time median (h) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Max concurrent 162 546 546 546 Disposition ratio 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 Add-to-winner share 61% 62% 62% 62% Average-down share 35% 35% 35% 35% Tilt ratio 1.12
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 46% 45% 45% 45% Brier (weighted) 0.1882 0.1661 0.1813 0.1813 Brier (unweighted) 0.1927 0.1900 0.1900 0.1900 Entry timing mean 0.280 0.253 0.253 0.253 Exit quality ($) $-0 $-0 $-0 $-0 Exit quality ROI gap -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean -0.0133 -0.0133 -0.0133 -0.0133 Alpha ($) $-1.61k $-1.61k $-1.61k $-1.61k Alpha ROI gap -107.9% -107.9% -107.9% -107.9% Contrarian score -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 Post-fill drift -0.0402 -0.0402 -0.0402 -0.0402 Post-fill candles (mean) 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Post-fill observations
Archetype scores Tilted Gambler: 70.0% Scalper: 60.8% Early-Bird Forecaster: 47.3% Contrarian Fader: 29.8% News Sniper: 25.0% Worst day $29.8k $-30.7k $-184k $-184k
Spread capture 0.0072 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075
Inventory turnover 3780.00 14265.00 14265.00 14265.00
Capital velocity 0.99 0.70 0.16 0.16
Avg ticket $446 $351 $351 $351
Median ticket $15 $12 $12 $12
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Sports $369k 54% 6090 Tennis $227k 53% 3874
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x07c5e374… $-139k $173k -80.1% 0x71cf1922… $58.9k $191k 30.8% 0x65670c7c… $-53.5k $88.5k -60.4% 0xb1f2c55d… $-50.1k $70.4k -71.1% 0xaa850b5f… $-46.7k $82.5k -56.6% 0x53488dad… $-46.1k $53.4k -86.4% 0x20a3262d… $45.8k $48.6k 94.2% 0x6e3a13b9… $-42.9k $44.2k -97.1% 0x5389df46… $-42k $52.3k -80.2% 0x56a22fd1… $40.2k $71.3k 56.4% 0xdcd01c45… $39.3k $43.9k 89.5% 0x09c148ae… $-38.7k $42.6k -90.8% 0xe0978062… $-38.3k $38.7k -99.0% 0xcd84f901… $37.2k $64.8k 57.4% 0xf27a7b1a… $-37.1k $37.6k -98.6%
0xbe029713eb… entry 0.120
0x8257d7d7dd… entry 0.295
0xf7db045a2f… entry 0.280
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0xe345490727… entry 0.245
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