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0x5188…c804
0x5188fa0e8a77e87bc6a58e6781fdfc4e165cc804
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
65% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (79%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.93).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 11:17:48 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$540k
Open PnL
$-244k
Max drawdown
$83.9k
Underwater days
68
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $540k |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $3.94k | $165k |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | 92% | 79% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | 11% | 4% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.603 | -0.014 | 0.107 |
| Markets | 0 | 0 | 3 | 226 |
| Best day | $-3 | $203 |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | 945.10 | 3.55 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $328 | $661 |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $157 | $38 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | 85.92 | 0.93 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | $1.59k | $27k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | $-4 | $-8.04k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $87 | $356 | $13k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 2.537 | -0.009 | 0.169 |
| Calmar | 6.433 | 6.433 | 6.433 | 6.433 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | 40% | 9% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | 89% | 26% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | 100% | 40% |
| Max win streak | N/A | N/A | 7 | 17 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | 1 | 5 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 0 | 194 | 8000 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 0 | 3 | 226 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | N/A | 46% | 88% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | 0.928 | 0.332 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | N/A | 0.973 | 0.039 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | N/A | 99% | 58% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | 192.5 | 107.2 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | 192.5 | 39.3 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | 3 | 196 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | 2.15 | 4.01 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | 80% | 63% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | 20% | 33% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | 100% | 83% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.0205 | 0.0438 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.1163 | 0.0887 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | 0.960 | 0.564 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | $15 | $-434 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | -6.3% | 13.8% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.1515 | -0.1515 | -0.1515 | -0.1515 |
| Alpha ($) | $-572 | $-572 | $-572 | $-572 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -50.2% | -50.2% | -50.2% | -50.2% |
| Contrarian score | -0.084 | -0.084 | -0.084 | -0.084 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0039 | -0.0039 | -0.0039 | -0.0039 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Favorite Grinder: 71.5%
- Tilted Gambler: 60.2%
- Scalper: 45.7%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 43.7%
- Conviction Holder: 38.5%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 6.42e-5; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0x6c85fe5b41… entry 0.129
- 0xc451f03563… entry 0.210
- 0x89da816a83… entry 0.200 timing 0.02
- 0x52bda1b8d6… entry 0.158
- 0xd9fb1184af… entry 0.076 timing 0.53