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0x514550b8f94f24e3bd5fca1c8af19e985fb71f46
Secondary: Early-Bird Forecaster
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 2.17 and disposition ratio 0.85, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 255.6), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
A close second label is Early-Bird Forecaster, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade F scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 10:58:30 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $502k |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $0 | $503k |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | N/A | 93% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 290% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.095 |
| Markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Best day | $0 | $0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | N/A | 360.34 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $35.9k |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $11.5k |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 27.72 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | N/A | $281k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-1.4k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | N/A | N/A | $33.8k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.167 |
| Calmar | 9.906 | 9.906 | 9.906 | 9.906 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 55% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 87% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 98% |
| Max win streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 13 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1237 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 60% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.256 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.153 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 24.6 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5.8 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | N/A | 12 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.85 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 67% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | N/A | 73% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.4894 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.4330 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.428 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-1.13k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | N/A | -19.7% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.5914 | -0.5914 | -0.5914 | -0.5914 |
| Alpha ($) | $-3.66k | $-3.66k | $-3.66k | $-3.66k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -131.8% | -131.8% | -131.8% | -131.8% |
| Contrarian score | -0.513 | -0.513 | -0.513 | -0.513 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0019 | -0.0019 | -0.0019 | -0.0019 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
| $0 |
| $415k |
| Worst day | $0 | $0 | $0 | $-24.5k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| N/A |
| N/A |
| $35.9k |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 0% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 89% | 75% |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 100% | 18% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 100% | 7% |
| >0.90 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0% |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 0% |
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | N/A | -0.0319 |
| Inventory turnover | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1237.00 |
| Capital velocity | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.23 |
| Avg ticket | N/A | N/A | N/A | $173 |
| Median ticket | N/A | N/A | N/A | $3 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | N/A | -513.50 |
| Quiet weeks | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 2.17 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Parent For Derivative | $434k | 83% | 6 |
| Iran | $54.7k | 100% | 4 |
| Politics | $8.13k | 100% | 2 |
| Israel | $3.64k | 100% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | $2.54k | 100% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3488f31e… | $281k | $56.9k | 492.6% |
| 0x70909f0b… | $49.5k | $11.1k | 443.8% |
| 0x4b02efe5… | $44.8k | $28.3k | 158.1% |
| 0x98c0aa27… | $42.9k | $19.6k | 218.1% |
| 0xdc4b9ecb… | $24.2k | $4.03k | 600.4% |
| 0x797d586a… | $17.9k | $15.7k | 114.1% |
| 0x3725dfa6… | $14.2k | $7.61k | 186.4% |
| 0xa6e34aaa… | $8.76k | $8.9k | 98.5% |
| 0xae1c048d… | $7.52k | $12k | 62.6% |
| 0x291f0f60… | $7.04k | $960 | 733.3% |
| 0x82612bed… | $3.64k | $3.36k | 108.3% |
| 0xe6b7d4d8… | $2.54k | $2.81k | 90.5% |
| 0x09cbe3e7… | $-1.4k | $1.4k | -100.0% |
| 0x2e94bb8d… | $1.09k | $580 | 188.5% |
| 1237 |
| 1237 |
| 1237 |
| 1237 |