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0x4c86…6993 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0x4c86…6993
0x4c86cdfff0fcff0f6b56a9ddb9f805b4b28f6993
Secondary: News Sniper
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 65252 with median hold 3.8 hours, maker share only 77%.
Capital velocity 5.4 and held-to-resolution 49% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
A close second label is News Sniper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 11:23:21 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $21.1k | $43.5k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $26.5k | $45.9k | $76.2k | $76.2k |
| Win rate | 71% | 77% | 41% | 41% |
| ROI | 133% | 63% | 6% | 6% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.397 | 0.383 | 0.130 |
| Markets | 9 | 43 | 471 | 4031 |
| Best day | $-238 | $19.7k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | 43.43 | 10.22 | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| Mean trade PnL | $3.79k | $2.09k | $117 | $117 |
| Median trade PnL | $112 | $42 | $-118 | $-118 |
| Payoff ratio | 17.37 | 3.01 | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| Largest win | $26.3k | $26.3k | $26.3k | $26.3k |
| Largest loss | $-439 | $-2.46k | $-4.28k | $-4.28k |
| Expectancy | $3.79k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $7.58k | $4.73k | $3.12k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 1.671 | 0.578 | 0.233 |
| Calmar | 7.042 | 7.042 | 7.042 | 7.042 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 69.0 | 69.0 | 69.0 | 69.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 95% | 47% | 5% | 5% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 94% | 17% | 17% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 99% | 24% | 24% |
| Max win streak | 3 | 6 | 12 | 12 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 1 | 28 | 28 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 78 | 364 | 7653 | 65252 |
| Unique markets | 9 | 43 | 471 | 4031 |
| Active days ratio | 100% | 86% | 93% | 88% |
| Avg entry price | 0.053 | 0.213 | 0.218 | 0.383 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.535 | 0.095 | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| Maker share (notional) | 94% | 84% | 87% | 77% |
| Two-sided share | 11% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 9.3 | 22.9 | 24.9 | 223.2 |
| Holding time median (h) | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.8 |
| Max concurrent | 7 | 29 | 224 | 2330 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 5.93 | 0.62 | 0.99 |
| Add-to-winner share | 40% | 50% | 52% | 63% |
| Average-down share | 60% | 36% | 32% | 25% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.50 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | 70% | 62% | 42% | 49% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.1376 | 0.0769 | 0.0465 | 0.0465 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.1172 | 0.1112 | 0.0528 | 0.0528 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.894 | 0.778 | 0.938 | 0.775 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-22 | $-539 | $12 | $12 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 36.5% | 19.2% | 71.9% | 71.9% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0172 | 0.0172 | 0.0172 | 0.0172 |
| Alpha ($) | $-1.18k | $-1.18k | $-1.18k | $-1.18k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -175.0% | -175.0% | -175.0% | -175.0% |
| Contrarian score | 0.104 | 0.104 | 0.104 | 0.104 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0025 | -0.0025 | -0.0025 | -0.0025 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Scalper: 60.5%
- News Sniper: 56.7%
- Tilted Gambler: 50.6%
- Favorite Grinder: 23.5%
- Conviction Holder: 23.1%
| Worst day | $-238 | $-2.54k | $-8.09k | $-8.68k |
| 0.10–0.40 | 100% | 100% | 56% | 56% | 3% |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | 100% | 61% | 61% | 27% |
| 0.60–0.90 | 100% | 100% | 51% | 51% | 21% |
| Spread capture | -0.0005 | -0.0039 | 0.0047 | -0.0123 |
| Inventory turnover | 78.00 | 364.00 | 7653.00 | 65252.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.29 | 0.95 | 0.82 | 5.40 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -605.30 | 10.34 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $76k | 40% | 629 |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup | $86 | 100% | 3 |
| President | $49 | 100% | 1 |
| S&P 500 | $25 | 50% | 2 |
| Finance | $-24 | 33% | 3 |
| Up or Down | $10 | 100% | 2 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x12e12585… | $26.3k | $3.31k | 795.8% |
| 0x086013bf… | $15.6k | $976 | 1600.0% |
| 0x04d9a1ea… | $15.1k | $941 | 1600.0% |
| 0x85a542eb… | $14.9k | $932 | 1600.0% |
| 0x5e8c8025… | $8.1k | $507 | 1600.0% |
| 0x2202659b… | $7.53k | $471 | 1600.0% |
| 0xd53d6728… | $7.34k | $941 | 779.9% |
| 0x7976b8db… | $6.69k | $6.49k | 103.1% |
| 0x19da4dd9… | $5.53k | $6.47k | 85.4% |
| 0x707ccd81… | $5.52k | $886 | 623.6% |
| 0x0dbfd71f… | $4.19k | $549 | 763.1% |
| 0x41ac5613… | $-3.92k | $5.31k | -73.9% |
| 0xb8c4eb2b… | $-3.92k | $3.92k | -100.0% |
| 0x20aa1249… | $3.76k | $344 | 1094.2% |
| 0x31e4e9fb… | $3.76k | $235 | 1600.0% |