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0x461f…7a07
0x461f3e886dca22e561eee224d283e08b8fb47a07
Early-Bird ForecasterGrade Farchetypes-v1
Secondary: Scalper
This wallet is categorized as an Early-Bird Forecaster because it enters early and often holds positions through resolution.
Mean entry timing is early (0.18 of market life) and 88% of resolved inventory is still held at settle.
Turnover stays low (4094.0), so the book looks like patient forecast positions rather than flow trading.
A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade F scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 10:47:08 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$1.5M
Open PnL
$0
Max drawdown
$1.9M
Underwater days
7
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | ∞ |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $0 | ∞ |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | N/A | 43% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.027 |
| Markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 120 |
| Best day | $0 | $0 |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.14 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $12.5k |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-2.02k |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.49 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | N/A | $755k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-652k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | N/A | N/A | $209k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Calmar | 1.030 | 1.030 | 1.030 | 1.030 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 14% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 26% |
| Max win streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 21 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 28 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4094 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 120 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 108% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.435 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.016 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 8% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5.0 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5.4 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | N/A | 106 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.01 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 75% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 10% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | N/A | 88% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.2528 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.2463 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.176 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-90 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.9% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0282 | -0.0282 | -0.0282 | -0.0282 |
| Alpha ($) | $-2.54k | $-2.54k | $-2.54k | $-2.54k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -2.4% | -2.4% | -2.4% | -2.4% |
| Contrarian score | -0.031 | -0.031 | -0.031 | -0.031 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0235 | -0.0235 | -0.0235 | -0.0235 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 73.1%
- Scalper: 66.3%
- Conviction Holder: 38.8%
- Tilted Gambler: 30.0%
- News Sniper: 20.6%