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0x44c1…ebc1
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
72% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (59%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.94).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 11:03:39 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$2.36M
Open PnL
$-129k
Max drawdown
$261k
Underwater days
69
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | ∞ |
| Realized PnL | $47 | $11.6k | $80.8k | ∞ |
| Win rate | 100% | 63% | 72% | 59% |
| ROI | 1% | 8% | 1% | 4% |
| Sharpe (daily) | ∞ | -0.172 | -0.103 | 0.115 |
| Markets | 8 | 46 | 165 | 2461 |
| Best day | $-1.03k | $3k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | ∞ | 1.39 | 1.13 | 1.32 |
| Mean trade PnL | $47 | $430 | $508 | $1.45k |
| Median trade PnL | $47 | $15 | $50 | $3 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 0.82 | 0.44 | 0.94 |
| Largest win | $47 | $34.5k | $333k | ∞ |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-24.9k | $-166k | $-5.85M |
| Expectancy | $47 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $3.81k | $24.1k | $22.4k |
| Sortino (daily) | ∞ | -0.104 | -0.068 | 0.118 |
| Calmar | 5.908 | 5.908 | 5.908 | 5.908 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 100% | 84% | 26% | 29% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 95% | 75% | 46% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 99% | 87% | 50% |
| Max win streak | 1 | 4 | 17 | 30 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 4 | 10 | 26 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 48 | 325 | 4157 | 66905 |
| Unique markets | 8 | 46 | 165 | 2461 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 103% | 96% |
| Avg entry price | 0.998 | 0.719 | 0.678 | 0.616 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.602 | 0.145 | 0.066 | 0.006 |
| Maker share (notional) | 11% | 47% | 67% | 69% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 25.2 | 74.0 | 205.0 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 5.9 | 26.3 | 28.7 |
| Max concurrent | 7 | 42 | 142 | 1945 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.12 | 1.92 | 1.42 |
| Add-to-winner share | 82% | 72% | 47% | 65% |
| Average-down share | 11% | 27% | 52% | 32% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | 74% | 76% | 72% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.0256 | 0.0334 | 0.0570 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.0426 | 0.0710 | 0.0899 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.607 | 0.474 | 0.596 | 0.622 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $-95 | $-2.28k | $-1.11k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | 1229.6% | 1198.2% | 402.1% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0070 | 0.0070 | 0.0070 | 0.0070 |
| Alpha ($) | $-20.3k | $-20.3k | $-20.3k | $-20.3k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -72.5% | -72.5% | -72.5% | -72.5% |
| Contrarian score | 0.268 | 0.268 | 0.268 | 0.268 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0111 | -0.0111 | -0.0111 | -0.0111 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Favorite Grinder: 61.5%
- Tilted Gambler: 45.1%
- Scalper: 41.3%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 34.0%
- Conviction Holder: 32.8%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 5.63e-171; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0x46471128dc… entry 0.120 timing 0.54
- 0xde41745762… entry 0.067 timing 0.97
- 0xadead580ed… entry 0.083 timing 0.97
- 0xf562feabe9… entry 0.080
- 0x52030aa0da… entry 0.240 timing 0.13
- 0x5a54c2fe06… entry 0.041 timing 0.96
- 0x89c555d51c… entry 0.080 timing 0.58
- 0xa9efd52154… entry 0.155
- 0x54c21fc36e… entry 0.035 timing 0.93
- 0x33a6aaf6f1… entry 0.100 timing 0.73
- 0x1b1c39b84a… entry 0.015 timing 0.74
- 0xb3c23059fb… entry 0.031
- 0xbd06a26ad6… entry 0.026
- 0xe516200817… entry 0.131
- 0xdcf2271b7c… entry 0.152
- 0xfae907b4c7… entry 0.096 timing 0.84
- 0x66694a7b4e… entry 0.182 timing 0.17
- 0xa5c1453246… entry 0.008
- 0xb8f291e872… entry 0.002