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0x4488…e319
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319
Secondary: Favorite Grinder
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 1.96 and disposition ratio 2.93, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 250.2), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
A close second label is Favorite Grinder, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 10:53:44 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$406k
Open PnL
$-9.87k
Max drawdown
$497k
Underwater days
163
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $1.98k | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $-596 | $-81.8k | $-182k | $417k |
| Win rate | 64% | 51% | 45% | 60% |
| ROI | -3% | -51% | -6% | 1% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.394 | -0.139 | 0.024 |
| Markets | 17 | 46 | 260 | 3804 |
| Best day | $6.39k | $10.5k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.93 | 0.32 | 0.62 | 1.09 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-54 | $-2.21k | $-707 | $86 |
| Median trade PnL | $1 | $0 | $-580 | $6 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.53 | 0.30 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| Largest win | $5.4k | $14.5k | $33k | $124k |
| Largest loss | $-2.75k | $-78.9k | $-78.9k | $-133k |
| Expectancy | $-54 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $63.4k | $42.4k | $22.8k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.257 | -0.112 | 0.017 |
| Calmar | 0.649 | 0.649 | 0.649 | 0.649 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 153.4 | 153.4 | 153.4 | 153.4 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 31% | 50% | 10% | 1% |
| Concentration top-5 | 92% | 70% | 23% | 6% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 80% | 32% | 9% |
| Max win streak | 4 | 5 | 9 | 70 |
| Max loss streak | 2 | 9 | 12 | 30 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 259 | 549 | 4358 | 52019 |
| Unique markets | 17 | 46 | 260 | 3804 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 103% | 100% |
| Avg entry price | 0.380 | 0.423 | 0.312 | 0.668 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.257 | 0.102 | 0.068 | 0.007 |
| Maker share (notional) | 88% | 88% | 65% | 55% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 3.9 | 1.6 | 33.8 | 67.6 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.5 | 0.8 | 5.4 | 8.4 |
| Max concurrent | 4 | 10 | 95 | 1777 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.08 | 1.18 | 2.93 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | 63% | 68% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | 29% | 25% |
| Tilt ratio | 1.44 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 13% | 17% | 37% | 47% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.2733 | 0.1234 | 0.0623 | 0.0768 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.2016 | 0.2153 | 0.2109 | 0.1932 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.981 | 0.921 | 0.843 | 0.741 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-0 | $-0 | $453 | $214 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | -0.0% | -0.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0151 | 0.0151 | 0.0151 | 0.0151 |
| Alpha ($) | $3.04k | $3.04k | $3.04k | $3.04k |
| Alpha ROI gap | 95.1% | 95.1% | 95.1% | 95.1% |
| Contrarian score | 0.312 | 0.312 | 0.312 | 0.312 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0041 | -0.0041 | -0.0041 | -0.0041 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 68.5%
- Favorite Grinder: 64.7%
- Scalper: 53.0%
- News Sniper: 38.8%
- Conviction Holder: 23.4%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 8.21e-31; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
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