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0x42c9…9623
0x42c99f38d2b951b0dc8e8bd5371fa80c9dd19623
This wallet is categorized as an Early-Bird Forecaster because it enters early and often holds positions through resolution.
Mean entry timing is early (0.17 of market life) and 93% of resolved inventory is still held at settle.
Turnover stays low (60521.0), so the book looks like patient forecast positions rather than flow trading.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 10:57:26 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$497k
Open PnL
$-39.3k
Max drawdown
$77.1k
Underwater days
17
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $35.3k | N/A | $497k |
| Realized PnL | $-3.3k | $11.6k | $103k | $529k |
| Win rate | 50% | 56% | 55% | 54% |
| ROI | -60% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.347 | 0.096 | 0.255 |
| Markets | 6 | 316 | 1355 | 2904 |
| Best day | $0 | $29.6k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.13 | 1.07 | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-550 | $24 | $46 | $63 |
| Median trade PnL | $-4 | $4 | $4 | $3 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.13 | 0.84 | 0.90 | 0.98 |
| Largest win | $377 | $6.32k | $43.5k | $43.5k |
| Largest loss | $-2.22k | $-31k | $-44k | $-44k |
| Expectancy | $-550 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $14.5k | $17.5k | $11.4k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.218 | 0.575 | 0.111 | 0.218 |
| Calmar | 6.452 | 6.452 | 6.452 | 6.452 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 54% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 18% | 10% | 4% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 27% | 16% | 7% |
| Max win streak | 1 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Max loss streak | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 32 | 1749 | 11015 | 60521 |
| Unique markets | 6 | 316 | 1355 | 2904 |
| Active days ratio | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% |
| Avg entry price | 0.373 | 0.461 | 0.513 | 0.501 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.372 | 0.013 | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Maker share (notional) | 0% | 6% | 18% | 36% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Holding time median (h) | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Max concurrent | 6 | 312 | 1337 | 2828 |
| Disposition ratio | 1.33 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.79 |
| Add-to-winner share | 71% | 63% | 63% | 64% |
| Average-down share | 29% | 36% | 37% | 36% |
| Tilt ratio | 1.01 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 100% | 96% | 95% | 93% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.1104 | 0.1599 | 0.1757 | 0.1552 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.0780 | 0.1718 | 0.1606 | 0.1425 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.112 | 0.179 | 0.189 | 0.169 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-0 | $0 | $-0 | $5 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.0% | 5.5% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0406 | 0.0406 | 0.0406 | 0.0406 |
| Alpha ($) | $304 | $304 | $304 | $304 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 48.2% | 48.2% | 48.2% | 48.2% |
| Contrarian score | -0.079 | -0.079 | -0.079 | -0.079 |
| Post-fill drift | 0.0406 | 0.0406 | 0.0406 | 0.0406 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 73.6%
- Scalper: 64.1%
- Conviction Holder: 36.0%
- Tilted Gambler: 35.1%
- Contrarian Fader: 32.7%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 1.42e-142; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0x1ae8803242… entry 0.297 timing 0.10
- 0xdbb996f290… entry 0.140 timing 0.20
- 0xf64b60695c… entry 0.253 timing 0.09
- 0x540bc90da6… entry 0.225 timing 0.09
- 0x0a1a0c63a3… entry 0.260 timing 0.11
- 0x8af44f3243… entry 0.222 timing 0.11
- 0x8e286a736a… entry 0.250 timing 0.16
- 0xe7c3a08a29… entry 0.295 timing 0.36
- 0xa7e3676f7a… entry 0.110 timing 0.12
- 0x573aea6a9b… entry 0.183 timing 0.07
- 0x75cbc9d9d7… entry 0.290 timing 0.10
- 0xaad4a48d86… entry 0.250 timing 0.09
- 0x9c08002ebe… entry 0.137
- 0x976c6590f5… entry 0.243
- 0x80da28cc2f… entry 0.187
- 0x21abeae768… entry 0.131
- 0x7e09cb7780… entry 0.029
- 0x003f361f69… entry 0.214
- 0xa3666d7146… entry 0.243