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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0x3186…e9ca · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0x3186…e9ca 0X
0x3186…e9ca 0x31864feb9d25dee93728c6225ba891530967e9ca
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 15025 with median hold 0.3 hours, maker share only 13%.
Capital velocity 1.1 and held-to-resolution 57% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 10:14:04 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A $90.4k $117k $655k Realized PnL $39.5k $92.5k $123k $658k Win rate 56% 59% 55% 57% ROI 53% 21% 11% 10% Sharpe (daily) N/A 0.949 0.415 0.453 Markets 5 46 123 587 Best day $0 $36k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor 7.85 3.12 1.66 1.62 Mean trade PnL $4.39k $1.05k $527 $262 Median trade PnL $3.78k $278 $70 $26 Payoff ratio 6.28 2.16 1.37 1.20 Largest win $19.3k $19.3k $19.3k $29.1k Largest loss $-2.24k $-9.65k $-18.7k $-18.7k Expectancy $4.39k
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $13.6k $10.3k $7.76k Sortino (daily) 0.652 0.652 0.489 0.652 Calmar 27.101 27.101 27.101 27.101 Drawdown duration (days) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 39% 11% 4% 1% Concentration top-5 100% 38% 16% 4% Concentration top-10 100% 55% 26% 6% Max win streak 2 6 7 29 Max loss streak 2 2 4 15
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 173 1383 3590 15025 Unique markets 5 46 123 587 Active days ratio 100% 86% 70% 83% Avg entry price 0.486 0.406 0.468 0.522 Portfolio HHI 0.225 0.035 0.014 0.005 Maker share (notional) 11% 16% 14% 13% Two-sided share N/A
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 Holding time median (h) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 Max concurrent 4 40 113 429 Disposition ratio 2.33 0.32 0.07 0.09 Add-to-winner share 44% 49% 45% 49% Average-down share 56% 50% 55% 51% Tilt ratio 1.29
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 40% 61% 65% 57% Brier (weighted) 0.2444 0.1631 0.1580 0.1463 Brier (unweighted) 0.3097 0.1702 0.1613 0.1686 Entry timing mean 0.851 0.710 0.846 0.913 Exit quality ($) $-1.11k $359 $296 $133 Exit quality ROI gap 1.5% 28.1% 20.6% -40.4%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean -0.0050 -0.0050 -0.0050 -0.0050 Alpha ($) $-92 $-92 $-92 $-92 Alpha ROI gap -47.4% -47.4% -47.4% -47.4% Contrarian score -0.106 -0.106 -0.106 -0.106 Post-fill drift -0.0050 -0.0050 -0.0050 -0.0050 Post-fill candles (mean) 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Post-fill observations
Archetype scores Scalper: 74.9% News Sniper: 59.1% Contrarian Fader: 42.4% Tilted Gambler: 30.7% Conviction Holder: 22.2% Worst day $0 $0 $-15.8k $-16.3k
Spread capture N/A N/A N/A N/A
Inventory turnover 173.00 1383.00 3590.00 15025.00
Capital velocity 2.28 1.64 1.46 1.06
Avg ticket $989 $520 $455 $461
Median ticket $125 $79 $49 $47
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A 66.10 -142.66
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Esports $658k 57% 2502 Sports $-6 33% 3
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x0405a23c… $30.2k $120k 25.1% 0x044205f2… $19.9k $8.83k 225.1% 0x48aeb798… $18.9k $14.3k 132.5% 0x52671a73… $-18.9k $24.4k -77.6% 0x4efbc90e… $18.1k $8.91k 202.7% 0xafa3f92e… $12.1k $30.4k 39.7% 0x3f9623d3… $10.4k $23.6k 44.2% 0xb5851fc3… $10.4k $9.56k 108.6% 0xaf8b847c… $-10.2k $12.5k -82.1% 0xc6fd1706… $10.1k $5.66k 179.0% 0x6b049bc3… $9.98k $6.6k 151.1% 0x72171a70… $-9.91k $16.8k -58.9% 0x0403e71b… $-9.79k $10.6k -92.4% 0x873eb998… $-9.49k $42.4k -22.4% 0xf3937f2c… $-8.97k $9.18k -97.7%
0xf6f972d179… entry 0.249
0x8db6193b46… entry 0.173
0x169739e7df… entry 0.290
0x648bd14e64… entry 0.179
0x648bd14e64… entry 0.163
0x1dbe9fcd53… entry 0.110
0x3954ec303f… entry 0.122
0x0bd390a2c7… entry 0.190
0x67d228115c… entry 0.165
0x6e2881a807… entry 0.110
0xf4dea48cee… entry 0.276
0xe64e618779… entry 0.149
0xa797e5df2e… entry 0.200
0xff67ef5015… entry 0.140