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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0x3048…7537 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0x3048…7537 0x3048…7537 0x3048d65321be3497164cdfc2996f94f98a2e7537
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 18880 with median hold 0.0 hours, maker share only 32%.
Capital velocity 0.2 and held-to-resolution 94% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 10:13:31 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) $1.44k $34.3k $64.4k N/A Realized PnL $4.75k $37k $68.6k $68.6k Win rate 51% 50% 51% 51% ROI 6% 3% 4% 4% Sharpe (daily) N/A 2.220 1.730 1.320 Markets 278 571 571 571 Best day $1.47k $7.66k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor 1.15 1.08 1.10 1.10 Mean trade PnL $9 $10 $7 $7 Median trade PnL $3 $3 $5 $5 Payoff ratio 1.11 1.07 1.07 1.07 Largest win $802 $3.34k $3.34k $3.34k Largest loss $-729 $-3.54k $-3.54k $-3.54k Expectancy $9
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $2.23k $1.7k $1.82k Sortino (daily) N/A N/A N/A 100.952 Calmar 1938.838 1938.838 1938.838 1938.838 Drawdown duration (days) 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 2% 1% 0% 0% Concentration top-5 9% 3% 2% 2% Concentration top-10 15% 4% 3% 3% Max win streak 3 3 3 3 Max loss streak 2 3 3 3
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 4589 18880 18880 18880 Unique markets 278 571 571 571 Active days ratio 200% 100% 100% 100% Avg entry price 0.484 0.486 0.486 0.486 Portfolio HHI 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.005 Maker share (notional) 29% 32% 32% 32% Two-sided share 94%
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Holding time median (h) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Max concurrent 272 565 565 565 Disposition ratio 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.90 Add-to-winner share 54% 54% 54% 54% Average-down share 45% 45% 45% 45% Tilt ratio 1.10
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 91% 94% 94% 94% Brier (weighted) 0.1835 0.1915 0.1932 0.1932 Brier (unweighted) 0.1611 0.1646 0.1701 0.1701 Entry timing mean 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 Exit quality ($) $0 $-0 $-0 $-0 Exit quality ROI gap 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean -0.0084 -0.0084 -0.0084 -0.0084 Alpha ($) $-125 $-125 $-125 $-125 Alpha ROI gap -22.3% -22.3% -22.3% -22.3% Contrarian score 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016 Post-fill drift N/A N/A N/A N/A Post-fill candles (mean) N/A N/A N/A N/A Post-fill observations N/A
Archetype scores Scalper: 63.9% News Sniper: 55.0% Tilted Gambler: 46.8% Early-Bird Forecaster: 35.0% Conviction Holder: 33.4% Worst day $1.47k $1.47k $488 $-28
Spread capture 0.0035 0.0145 0.0145 0.0145
Inventory turnover 4589.00 18880.00 18880.00 18880.00
Capital velocity 0.99 0.24 0.16 0.16
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x0fb0a4bb… $-446 $6.15k -7.2% 0xbf639a52… $-422 $422 -100.0% 0x2c09fe4c… $408 $1.42k 28.7% 0xb38ebe5c… $-304 $2.8k -10.9% 0xe57562ca… $296 $354 83.8% 0x66bf012e… $285 $358 79.7% 0x07fb6ed7… $285 $2.08k 13.7% 0xaf75d8db… $-281 $281 -100.0% 0x411703a1… $-274 $696 -39.4% 0x0d3ce0b3… $-259 $477 -54.4% 0x39d40a3e… $255 $887 28.7% 0x43a369b1… $-250 $588 -42.6% 0x54d28cd2… $-249 $1.54k -16.2% 0x9cb2fa0f… $247 $1.22k 20.3% 0x84cc842e… $-246 $2.91k -8.5%
0x41623950bf… entry 0.263
0x4eff9df2f2… entry 0.246
0xe4b8bc16bf… entry 0.250
0x2d0965cd1e… entry 0.262
0x170f7e5d92… entry 0.234
0x42234c7547… entry 0.160
0x85e13897ff… entry 0.255
0x296426ad44… entry 0.297
0xd3855455b1… entry 0.234
0x213867d323… entry 0.218
0x4b4de1e1a2… entry 0.298
0xd159399167… entry 0.262
0xc514d4b046… entry 0.259
0xacd4b05241… entry 0.223
0xc6014b80e7… entry 0.178
0xe14f3f7f0b… entry 0.264
0x21b0677da0… entry 0.224
0x32c70d1aa8… entry 0.276
0x8350ec6f85… entry 0.289
0x4b2d1b5ddb… entry 0.295
0xdbcc4cafa7… entry 0.230
0x5ccc994e6f… entry 0.201
0xa43f153fba… entry 0.291
0x5b4f12d883… entry 0.285
0xe01a9cef8f… entry 0.280
0x628834fbc4… entry 0.220
0x1fe66113fe… entry 0.241
0x332f50fbee… entry 0.232
0x66546ebc42… entry 0.272
0x17cea29775… entry 0.263
0xf68c3e00c7… entry 0.258
0x82b9f51392… entry 0.264
0x152591b5b4… entry 0.249
0xf6b9bd820c… entry 0.276
0xef91fa967e… entry 0.255
0x2a1b977004… entry 0.287
0x062b583c95… entry 0.246
0xd7cfc7117b… entry 0.290
0xab5d6f16fe… entry 0.296
0x69e20301aa… entry 0.279
0x37c8d9af2b… entry 0.245
0x91728a3a9b… entry 0.289
0x937b04864e… entry 0.240
0xedcff99738… entry 0.246
0xd898c9f9f4… entry 0.257