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0x2806…36e7
0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7
Secondary: Early-Bird Forecaster
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 28106 with median hold 15.8 hours, maker share only 33%.
Capital velocity 0.4 and held-to-resolution 82% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
A close second label is Early-Bird Forecaster, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 09:57:19 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$698k
Open PnL
$0
Max drawdown
$112k
Underwater days
496
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $698k |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $0 | $698k |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | N/A | 55% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.096 |
| Markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93 |
| Best day | $0 | $0 |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.31 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $1.55k |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $477 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.08 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | N/A | $134k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-99.9k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | N/A | N/A | $13k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.077 |
| Calmar | 6.701 | 6.701 | 6.701 | 6.701 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 495.4 | 495.4 | 495.4 | 495.4 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 17% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 28% |
| Max win streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 12 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28106 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 102% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.500 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.043 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 33% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 61.8 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 15.8 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | N/A | 89 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.94 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 56% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 43% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | N/A | 82% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.0692 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.0585 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.493 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $433 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | N/A | 425.0% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0150 | -0.0150 | -0.0150 | -0.0150 |
| Alpha ($) | $571 | $571 | $571 | $571 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 21.5% | 21.5% | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| Contrarian score | 0.059 | 0.059 | 0.059 | 0.059 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0018 | -0.0018 | -0.0018 | -0.0018 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Scalper: 52.7%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 48.7%
- Favorite Grinder: 41.9%
- Conviction Holder: 32.9%
- Tilted Gambler: 30.0%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 5.51e-134; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
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