0x25b2…3b9e

0x25b23e01a7d90e25871d1098841f25e856943b9e

Longshot HunterGrade BStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

Secondary: Scalper

This wallet is categorized as a Longshot Hunter because most of its notional sits in cheap longshot outcomes.

36% of closed cost sits under 10¢, so win rate is low (36%) while payoff ratio runs hot (2.7).

PnL volatility 4945 reflects lumpy longshot outcomes rather than steady grinding.

A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.

Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

Updated 2026-07-19 09:43:22 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$143k

Open PnL

$-7.61k

Max drawdown

$2.83k

Underwater days

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	N/A	$60.3k	$124k	N/A
Realized PnL	$17.2k	$27.3k	$41.9k	$43.5k
Win rate	53%	39%	36%	36%
ROI	94%	54%	24%	22%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	0.619	0.579	0.332
Markets	168	953	3271	5160
Best day	$99	$38.8k

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	14.05	3.14	1.57	1.51
Mean trade PnL	$143	$28	$11	$10
Median trade PnL	$3	$-1	$-3	$-3
Payoff ratio	12.29	5.01	2.81	2.72
Largest win	$7.52k	$7.52k	$7.52k	$7.52k
Largest loss	$-322	$-2.29k	$-2.29k	$-2.29k
Expectancy	$143

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$13.9k	$7.71k	$4.95k
Sortino (daily)	1.802	1.802	1.802	1.802
Calmar	50.558	50.558	50.558	50.558
Drawdown duration (days)	25.0	25.0	25.0	25.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	38%	14%	4%	4%
Concentration top-5	62%	39%	13%	11%
Concentration top-10	78%	48%	19%	17%
Max win streak	7	7	9	9
Max loss streak	15	19	31	31

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	611	4091	20696	48410
Unique markets	168	953	3271	5160
Active days ratio	200%	114%	103%	101%
Avg entry price	0.161	0.119	0.117	0.101
Portfolio HHI	0.054	0.028	0.014	0.006
Maker share (notional)	82%	81%	87%	86%
Two-sided share	0%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	7.5	33.8	86.8	116.4
Holding time median (h)	6.3	29.1	42.4	59.4
Max concurrent	95	501	1951	3311
Disposition ratio	0.97	1.44	1.15	1.05
Add-to-winner share	56%	50%	54%	56%
Average-down share	32%	42%	40%	40%
Tilt ratio	0.76

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	100%	58%	62%	67%
Brier (weighted)	0.2409	0.1373	0.1472	0.1495
Brier (unweighted)	0.1511	0.0843	0.0961	0.0962
Entry timing mean	0.627	0.540	0.553	0.561
Exit quality ($)	$-5	$6	$2	$2
Exit quality ROI gap	22.0%	17.5%	0.6%	-0.5%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	-0.0168	-0.0168	-0.0168	-0.0168
Alpha ($)	$-3	$-3	$-3	$-3
Alpha ROI gap	-8.2%	-8.2%	-8.2%	-8.2%
Contrarian score	0.165	0.165	0.165	0.165
Post-fill drift	-0.0013	-0.0013	-0.0013	-0.0013
Post-fill candles (mean)	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Longshot Hunter: 44.0%
Scalper: 37.9%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 36.1%
Conviction Holder: 34.2%
Tilted Gambler: 30.5%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x8de189f9ac… entry 0.091 timing 0.51
0xba9ff5deb3… entry 0.038 timing 0.08
0xced4460f12… entry 0.038 timing 0.09
0xeba21f221f… entry 0.091 timing 0.51
0x2ba4f66ab5… entry 0.038 timing 0.08
0xc65b037d40… entry 0.053 timing 0.13
0x08db488b3e… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0x0a918da207… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0x64a0b6fc61… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0xa4d85e328a… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0xa925f08400… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0xfbd6368257… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0xb53074fe66… entry 0.091 timing 0.38
0x9f301fa47f… entry 0.091 timing 0.33
0xe09708b1ac… entry 0.091 timing 0.49
0x9be29112b6… entry 0.091 timing 0.47
0x89fb4fb226… entry 0.091 timing 0.54
0x40bad677e8… entry 0.091 timing 0.53
0x859a214489… entry 0.091 timing 0.44

Open share card

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0x25b2…3b9e

0x25b23e01a7d90e25871d1098841f25e856943b9e

Secondary: Scalper

This wallet is categorized as a Longshot Hunter because most of its notional sits in cheap longshot outcomes.

36% of closed cost sits under 10¢, so win rate is low (36%) while payoff ratio runs hot (2.7).

PnL volatility 4945 reflects lumpy longshot outcomes rather than steady grinding.

A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.

Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

N/A

$60.3k

$124k

N/A

Realized PnL

$17.2k

$27.3k

$41.9k

$43.5k

Win rate

53%

39%

36%

ROI

94%

54%

24%

22%

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.619

0.579

0.332

Markets

168

953

3271

5160

Best day

$99

$38.8k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

14.05

3.14

1.57

1.51

Mean trade PnL

$143

$28

$11

$10

Median trade PnL

$-1

$-3

Payoff ratio

12.29

5.01

2.81

2.72

Largest win

$7.52k

Largest loss

$-322

$-2.29k

Expectancy

$143

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$13.9k

$7.71k

$4.95k

Sortino (daily)

1.802

Calmar

50.558

Drawdown duration (days)

25.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

38%

14%

Concentration top-5

62%

39%

13%

11%

Concentration top-10

78%

48%

19%

17%

Max win streak

Max loss streak

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

611

4091

20696

48410

Unique markets

168

953

3271

5160

Active days ratio

200%

114%

103%

101%

Avg entry price

0.161

0.119

0.117

0.101

Portfolio HHI

0.054

0.028

0.014

0.006

Maker share (notional)

82%

81%

87%

86%

Two-sided share

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

7.5

33.8

86.8

116.4

Holding time median (h)

6.3

29.1

42.4

59.4

Max concurrent

501

1951

3311

Disposition ratio

0.97

1.44

1.15

1.05

Add-to-winner share

56%

50%

54%

56%

Average-down share

32%

42%

40%

Tilt ratio

0.76

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

100%

58%

62%

67%

Brier (weighted)

0.2409

0.1373

0.1472

0.1495

Brier (unweighted)

0.1511

0.0843

0.0961

0.0962

Entry timing mean

0.627

0.540

0.553

0.561

Exit quality ($)

$-5

Exit quality ROI gap

22.0%

17.5%

0.6%

-0.5%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

-0.0168

Alpha ($)

$-3

Alpha ROI gap

-8.2%

Contrarian score

0.165

Post-fill drift

-0.0013

Post-fill candles (mean)

6.0

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Longshot Hunter: 44.0%

Scalper: 37.9%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 36.1%

Conviction Holder: 34.2%

Tilted Gambler: 30.5%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x8de189f9ac… entry 0.091 timing 0.51
0xba9ff5deb3… entry 0.038 timing 0.08
0xced4460f12… entry 0.038 timing 0.09
0xeba21f221f… entry 0.091 timing 0.51
0x2ba4f66ab5… entry 0.038 timing 0.08
0xc65b037d40… entry 0.053 timing 0.13
0x08db488b3e… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0x0a918da207… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0x64a0b6fc61… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0xa4d85e328a… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0xa925f08400… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0xfbd6368257… entry 0.036 timing 0.80
0xb53074fe66… entry 0.091 timing 0.38
0x9f301fa47f… entry 0.091 timing 0.33
0xe09708b1ac… entry 0.091 timing 0.49
0x9be29112b6… entry 0.091 timing 0.47
0x89fb4fb226… entry 0.091 timing 0.54
0x40bad677e8… entry 0.091 timing 0.53
0x859a214489… entry 0.091 timing 0.44

Politics	$9.81k	39%	41
Soccer	$8.59k	40%	202
NBA	$4.7k	19%	91
2026 FIFA World Cup	$3.67k	21%	147
Culture	$3.41k	32%	508
Formula 1	$2.81k	35%	110
NBA Finals	$1.94k	100%	3
Trump-Machado	$1.4k	24%	17
Tech	$1.05k	35%	40
Economy	$720	60%	10
EPL	$627	100%	2
Rewards 20, 4.5, 50	$573	27%	15

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x81a537b3…	$7.52k	$8.02k	93.8%
0xdf6e9ed2…	$3.34k	$260	1284.3%
0x7d3e5102…	$3.02k	$227	1331.5%
0xd2a8caba…	$2.75k	$6.86k	40.2%
0x81e56167…	$2.66k	$2.82k	94.4%
0xfa021d81…	$2.26k	$89	2555.3%
0x2d1492e3…	$2.13k	$9.3k	22.9%
0xa4402219…	$1.97k	$157	1259.3%
0x6a9ac156…	$1.85k	$1.96k	94.4%
0xaf12bd1a…	$1.84k	$157	1174.7%
0x67f3f8d0…	$1.46k	$33	4411.4%
0x16b3e96f…	$1.37k	$38	3581.0%
0x05297f85…	$1.36k	$527	258.7%
0xb42fa5db…	$1.3k	$227	575.3%
0x10cfe107…	$1.26k	$260	483.6%

0x25b2…3b9e

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0x25b2…3b9e

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

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