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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0x225b…9a83 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0x225b…9a83 0X
0x225b…9a83 0x225b8c4561bbb07f92f380f6bc8d92071f1a9a83
This wallet is categorized as a Contrarian Fader because fills lean against recent price moves and it averages down.
Contrarian score is -0.53 (negative = buying against recent moves) with average-down share 27%.
Holds stretch longer (median 8.0 hours) while waiting for reversion.
Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 09:21:41 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A $80.9k $63.1k N/A Realized PnL $40.8k $66.3k $62.2k $93.4k Win rate 56% 53% 57% 56% ROI 113% 39% 4% 6% Sharpe (daily) N/A 0.724 0.000 0.027 Markets 10 12 12 12 Best day $842 $36k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor 16.29 2.38 1.14 1.19 Mean trade PnL $4.53k $1.47k $185 $200 Median trade PnL $19 $2 $34 $21 Payoff ratio 13.03 2.08 0.86 0.94 Largest win $37.5k $38.4k $38.4k $38.4k Largest loss $-1.83k $-10.6k $-37.4k $-37.4k Expectancy $4.53k
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $16k $22.7k $20.6k Sortino (daily) 0.021 0.021 0.000 0.021 Calmar 0.189 0.189 0.189 0.189 Drawdown duration (days) 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 83% 24% 4% 4% Concentration top-5 100% 68% 19% 17% Concentration top-10 100% 92% 34% 30% Max win streak 2 2 10 10 Max loss streak 1 2 4 7
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 446 500 500 500 Unique markets 10 12 12 12 Active days ratio 200% 100% 100% 100% Avg entry price 0.275 0.285 0.285 0.285 Portfolio HHI 0.174 0.165 0.165 0.165 Maker share (notional) 63% 62% 62% 62% Two-sided share 50%
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) 7.6 8.2 8.2 8.2 Holding time median (h) 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 Max concurrent 5 6 6 6 Disposition ratio 1.32 0.83 0.83 0.83 Add-to-winner share 31% 32% 32% 32% Average-down share 29% 27% 27% 27% Tilt ratio 6.24
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 50% 56% 56% 56% Brier (weighted) 0.2461 0.2505 0.1477 0.1439 Brier (unweighted) 0.1832 0.1868 0.1517 0.1533 Entry timing mean 0.918 0.858 0.858 0.858 Exit quality ($) $0 $0 $-179 $-163 Exit quality ROI gap 0.0% -0.0% 5.0% 13.3%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean 0.3084 0.3084 0.3084 0.3084 Alpha ($) $19.6k $19.6k $19.6k $19.6k Alpha ROI gap 193.0% 193.0% 193.0% 193.0% Contrarian score -0.526 -0.526 -0.526 -0.526 Post-fill drift 0.1568 0.1568 0.1568 0.1568 Post-fill candles (mean) 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 Post-fill observations
Archetype scores Contrarian Fader: 51.4% News Sniper: 42.8% Scalper: 36.0% Tilted Gambler: 30.0% Conviction Holder: 22.6% Worst day $842 $159 $-86.3k $-86.3k
0.40–0.60 100% 75% 63% 59% 21%
Spread capture 0.0870 0.0878 0.0878 0.0878
Inventory turnover 446.00 500.00 500.00 500.00
Capital velocity 1.31 0.30 0.03 0.03
Avg ticket $106 $100 $100 $100
Median ticket $26 $26 $26 $26
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Sports $92.2k 55% 423 2026 FIFA World Cup $1.48k 59% 22 Soccer $-932 50% 4 Group Futures $636 78% 18
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0xaa23528a… $38.1k $17.1k 223.2% 0xbf19d17c… $-37.4k $89.1k -41.9% 0xaf767784… $36.9k $13.1k 281.7% 0xe9b6af2b… $-34.5k $36.6k -94.2% 0x08d56195… $29.4k $15.8k 186.1% 0x9814196a… $27.8k $20.7k 134.2% 0xe6906202… $-25.5k $35k -73.0% 0x374d4c9c… $-24.3k $26k -93.5% 0x2c37e07b… $-18.1k $31.2k -58.0% 0x7806f3a1… $15.1k $22.8k 66.2% 0xe1bd581c… $-13.7k $17.1k -79.8% 0xc09537a0… $-13.6k $18.5k -73.7% 0x5bdcf0fd… $-12.8k $15.1k -85.0% 0x4a2085d9… $12.1k $15k 80.7% 0x914abe14… $-11.9k $12.3k -96.9%
0x9e030ad2c9… entry 0.039
0x232342e2a9… entry 0.125
0xd9a23115df… entry 0.090
0x2b4abd4c4f… entry 0.015
0xc90f95af1a… entry 0.075
0xbbf3d45e34… entry 0.026
0x0fac1fde9b… entry 0.291
0x825bc4151f… entry 0.294
0x0256ef6342… entry 0.220
0xcd82ced289… entry 0.210
0xb366117d88… entry 0.220
0xd294f77d08… entry 0.035
0xa681d4cd61… entry 0.098
0xcaaa1338d3… entry 0.093
0xc5c075c77d… entry 0.186
0xbd175757f1… entry 0.093
0x36f93dcdb7… entry 0.265
0xcd05a73f2d… entry 0.287
0x344327632a… entry 0.281
0xf29e8ca118… entry 0.035
0xa5501b4dc0… entry 0.126
0x8f92746709… entry 0.276
0x51fc7cfdae… entry 0.027
0x639c60e4a7… entry 0.099
0x6b864f3576… entry 0.059