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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0x21f3…35e3 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0x21f3…35e3 0X
0x21f3…35e3 0x21f333307ac6d2e65ac82f014b3dd2b64cbc35e3
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 26499 with median hold 4.6 hours, maker share only 96%.
Capital velocity 1.2 and held-to-resolution 5% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 09:29:47 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A $24.4k N/A N/A Realized PnL $25.6k $86.5k $726k $3.92M Win rate 94% 83% 81% 76% ROI 99% 68% 50% 54% Sharpe (daily) N/A 0.445 -0.058 -0.016 Markets 29 147 971 4672 Best day $-10.9k $14.3k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor 13.64 9.38 3.66 4.10 Mean trade PnL $1.51k $901 $1.27k $597 Median trade PnL $1.15k $454 $625 $51 Payoff ratio 0.85 1.88 0.87 1.30 Largest win $5.92k $7.86k $29k $87.8k Largest loss $-2.02k $-2.67k $-42.3k $-42.3k Expectancy $1.51k
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $7.9k $28.4k $27k Sortino (daily) N/A N/A -0.060 -0.017 Calmar -0.210 -0.210 -0.210 -0.210 Drawdown duration (days) 93.0 93.0 93.0 93.0
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 20% 8% 4% 1% Concentration top-5 70% 31% 12% 4% Concentration top-10 91% 49% 21% 7% Max win streak 14 14 15 80 Max loss streak 1 2 2 10
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 111 473 4403 26499 Unique markets 29 147 971 4672 Active days ratio 200% 114% 103% 100% Avg entry price N/A N/A N/A 0.444 Portfolio HHI 0.090 0.024 0.005 0.001 Maker share (notional) 100% 100% 100% 96% Two-sided share 3%
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) N/A N/A N/A 5.8 Holding time median (h) N/A N/A N/A 4.6 Max concurrent N/A N/A N/A 234 Disposition ratio N/A N/A N/A 1.10 Add-to-winner share N/A N/A N/A 26% Average-down share N/A N/A N/A 24% Tilt ratio 1.47
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 0% 0% 0% 5% Brier (weighted) 0.2854 0.1968 0.2070 0.2216 Brier (unweighted) 0.2788 0.2672 0.2654 0.2580 Entry timing mean N/A N/A N/A 0.710 Exit quality ($) $-0 $-0 $-7 $-14 Exit quality ROI gap -0.0% 0.0% -0.5% 1.5%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean -0.0056 -0.0056 -0.0056 -0.0056 Alpha ($) $34 $34 $34 $34 Alpha ROI gap 68.8% 68.8% 68.8% 68.8% Contrarian score 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 Post-fill drift -0.0375 -0.0375 -0.0375 -0.0375 Post-fill candles (mean) 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Post-fill observations
Archetype scores Scalper: 63.7% News Sniper: 42.7% Tilted Gambler: 36.3% Favorite Grinder: 20.6% Contrarian Fader: 19.7% Worst day $-10.9k $-10.9k $-60.3k $-80.2k
0.60–0.90 100% 87% 92% 82% 27%
Spread capture N/A N/A N/A -0.0021
Inventory turnover 111.00 473.00 4403.00 26499.00
Capital velocity 2.01 1.60 1.53 1.18
Avg ticket $470 $433 $510 $324
Median ticket $30 $44 $23 $17
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A -281.00 -164.76
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Sports $3.4M 75% 6228 Tennis $518k 97% 277
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x3ceb5b63… $87.8k $45.5k 192.7% 0x32e794fb… $57.4k $10.7k 535.3% 0x7d531b7f… $41.6k $36.2k 115.0% 0xe1bd581c… $-39.5k $44.9k -88.0% 0x6b864f35… $37.5k $8.26k 454.0% 0x726a9be9… $-32.9k $32.9k -100.0% 0x0dc1e2c1… $31.4k $29.4k 106.7% 0xff161c4c… $-31.1k $36.1k -86.3% 0x2037b257… $29k $31k 93.7% 0x688954ad… $28.6k $37.1k 77.1% 0x6fe99ec0… $28.5k $16k 178.7% 0xee71cea6… $28.5k $25.7k 110.8% 0x63f4859b… $28.2k $27.1k 103.7% 0x38fb4ced… $26.9k $24.8k 108.4% 0x2e60769f… $26.6k $11.9k 222.8%
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