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0x1e1f…c855
0x1e1f17412069c0736adfaadf8ee7f46e5612c855
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
71% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (60%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (1.22).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 09:18:47 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$452k
Open PnL
$-21.4k
Max drawdown
$74k
Underwater days
137
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $2.54k | N/A | N/A | $452k |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $814 | $17.5k | $368k |
| Win rate | N/A | 67% | 95% | 60% |
| ROI | N/A | 31% | 48% | 5% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -1.082 | -0.237 | 0.051 |
| Markets | 3 | 11 | 33 | 937 |
| Best day | $2.32k | $2.32k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 1.91 | 20.51 | 1.81 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | $271 | $921 | $420 |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | $91 | $195 | $7 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 0.95 | 1.14 | 1.22 |
| Largest win | N/A | $1.62k | $5.3k | $99.1k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-897 | $-897 | $-22.2k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $4.11k | $4.85k | $12.6k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.649 | -0.209 | 0.153 |
| Calmar | 5.192 | 5.192 | 5.192 | 5.192 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 103.0 | 103.0 | 103.0 | 103.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | 62% | 27% | 8% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | 100% | 70% | 25% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | 100% | 97% | 36% |
| Max win streak | N/A | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 3 | 74 | 404 | 13186 |
| Unique markets | 3 | 11 | 33 | 937 |
| Active days ratio | 100% | 100% | 76% | 59% |
| Avg entry price | 0.057 | 0.110 | 0.249 | 0.264 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.378 | 0.161 | 0.086 | 0.018 |
| Maker share (notional) | 0% | 44% | 70% | 67% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 5.2 | 65.9 | 654.5 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 0.6 | 2.7 | 77.9 |
| Max concurrent | 3 | 9 | 19 | 532 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | 100% | 87% | 56% |
| Average-down share | N/A | 0% | 11% | 35% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | 75% | 48% | 54% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.4433 | 0.1875 | 0.0495 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.3875 | 0.2561 | 0.1438 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.783 | 0.832 | 0.568 | 0.515 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $3 | $-84 | $313 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | 0.4% | -1.8% | 44.8% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0866 | 0.0866 | 0.0866 | 0.0866 |
| Alpha ($) | $-8 | $-8 | $-8 | $-8 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Contrarian score | 0.285 | 0.285 | 0.285 | 0.285 |
| Post-fill drift | 0.0034 | 0.0034 | 0.0034 | 0.0034 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations | 167 |
Archetype scores
- Favorite Grinder: 60.3%
- Tilted Gambler: 49.6%
- Scalper: 39.9%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 32.9%
- News Sniper: 31.5%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 1.08e-19; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0x913d94d814… entry 0.053
- 0x692b8170d2… entry 0.082 timing 0.74
- 0xab03a5adc3… entry 0.180
- 0x2a263488a1… entry 0.050 timing 0.00
- 0xb2f7dc9439… entry 0.046 timing 0.00
- 0xfad080aab1… entry 0.046 timing 0.00
- 0xe2d0a0c095… entry 0.033
- 0x3b2f19935f… entry 0.100 timing 0.55
- 0x78a974642c… entry 0.161
- 0x1652ed7c83… entry 0.027 timing 0.65
- 0x8fc5b2e674… entry 0.152 timing 0.28
- 0x6d7d4e3ab7… entry 0.220 timing 0.20
- 0x2fc417b2e4… entry 0.210 timing 0.04
- 0xea8f9144b3… entry 0.120
- 0x3dba4e07ef… entry 0.280 timing 0.07
- 0x4fdc8c72f3… entry 0.120 timing 0.75
- 0x3740aaf9c6… entry 0.120
- 0x3c53179856… entry 0.110