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0x1ab8222ecb2f0b03f6249616c3bea54bb0f41b4a
Secondary: Scalper
This wallet is categorized as an Early-Bird Forecaster because it enters early and often holds positions through resolution.
Mean entry timing is early (0.30 of market life) and 71% of resolved inventory is still held at settle.
Turnover stays low (55206.0), so the book looks like patient forecast positions rather than flow trading.
A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 09:00:25 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $35.6k | $73.8k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $11.3k | $26.9k | $59k | $158k |
| Win rate | 57% | 62% | 57% | 56% |
| ROI | 14% | 6% | 1% | 3% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.640 | 0.396 | 0.120 |
| Markets | 23 | 69 | 561 | 980 |
| Best day | $-795 | $20.7k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 2.62 | 1.60 | 1.14 | 1.25 |
| Mean trade PnL | $405 | $299 | $66 | $103 |
| Median trade PnL | $3 | $38 | $19 | $10 |
| Payoff ratio | 1.97 | 0.99 | 0.87 | 0.98 |
| Largest win | $4.58k | $11k | $17.5k | $19.6k |
| Largest loss | $-1.16k | $-12.9k | $-24.6k | $-24.6k |
| Expectancy | $405 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $7.93k | $9.26k | $6.58k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 4.079 | 0.477 | 0.085 |
| Calmar | 1.868 | 1.868 | 1.868 | 1.868 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 18% | 11% | 3% | 2% |
| Concentration top-5 | 61% | 41% | 10% | 7% |
| Concentration top-10 | 87% | 62% | 16% | 12% |
| Max win streak | 4 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| Max loss streak | 3 | 3 | 40 | 40 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 812 | 3534 | 34605 | 55206 |
| Unique markets | 23 | 69 | 561 | 980 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 100% | 100% | 41% |
| Avg entry price | 0.572 | 0.508 | 0.581 | 0.578 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.090 | 0.057 | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Maker share (notional) | 55% | 66% | 60% | 57% |
| Two-sided share | 61% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Max concurrent | 18 | 57 | 476 | 841 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.63 | 2.11 | 2.33 | 1.61 |
| Add-to-winner share | 76% | 46% | 62% | 60% |
| Average-down share | 18% | 41% | 26% | 28% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.50 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 71% | 77% | 69% | 71% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.1335 | 0.1008 | 0.0786 | 0.0941 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.1798 | 0.1584 | 0.1079 | 0.1189 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.636 | 0.336 | 0.365 | 0.302 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-32 | $-31 | $79 | $91 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 5.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0172 | -0.0172 | -0.0172 | -0.0172 |
| Alpha ($) | $-30 | $-30 | $-30 | $-30 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -53.2% | -53.2% | -53.2% | -53.2% |
| Contrarian score | 0.058 | 0.058 | 0.058 | 0.058 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0188 | -0.0188 | -0.0188 | -0.0188 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Post-fill observations |
| $22.2k |
| $24.8k |
| Worst day | $-795 | $-1.57k | $-17.3k | $-36.5k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $299 |
| $66 |
| $103 |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| 0% |
| 6% |
| 4% |
| 0% |
| 0.10–0.40 | 13% | 22% | 14% | 16% | 8% |
| 0.40–0.60 | 75% | 81% | 47% | 48% | 15% |
| 0.60–0.90 | 71% | 71% | 81% | 80% | 36% |
| >0.90 | 100% | 92% | 96% | 96% | 41% |
| 55% |
| 63% |
| 62% |
| Spread capture | 0.0175 | 0.0254 | 0.0144 | 0.0104 |
| Inventory turnover | 812.00 | 3534.00 | 34605.00 | 55206.00 |
| Capital velocity | 1.32 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Avg ticket | $132 | $116 | $119 | $110 |
| Median ticket | $57 | $46 | $42 | $37 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -2405.80 | 356.80 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 0.85 |
| 1.53 |
| 1.46 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $126k | 57% | 1196 |
| Tennis | $30.9k | 53% | 327 |
| Formula 1 | $1.7k | 67% | 9 |
| UK Elections | $-195 | 0% | 1 |
| Esports | $50 | 100% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xfd5dd99f… | $-24.6k | $25k | -98.7% |
| 0x965235c4… | $19.6k | $19.9k | 98.3% |
| 0xf8b51c68… | $-18.3k | $20.4k | -89.9% |
| 0x71cf1922… | $17.5k | $15.6k | 112.2% |
| 0x2e8e6cd0… | $16.5k | $6.17k | 267.3% |
| 0x22bc3032… | $-14.3k | $23.2k | -61.7% |
| 0xf7266d7d… | $13.9k | $18k | 77.5% |
| 0x3ea5caf5… | $-12.8k | $14.4k | -89.2% |
| 0x04d9a1ea… | $-12.7k | $65.8k | -19.3% |
| 0x04068db9… | $-11.6k | $17.7k | -65.4% |
| 0xf134b5d6… | $11.5k | $25.7k | 45.0% |
| 0xfb2314dc… | $10.7k | $14.5k | 73.5% |
| 0xb96585ac… | $-10.3k | $15.2k | -67.9% |
| 0xdc09be65… | $-9.87k | $15k | -65.6% |
| 0x00d23ce1… | $9.09k | $11k | 82.8% |
| 758 |
| 758 |
| 758 |
| 758 |