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0x161e…6ef0
0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
91% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (85%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.30).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 08:42:49 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$860k
Open PnL
$-63.9k
Max drawdown
$46.8k
Underwater days
21
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | $41.3k | $860k |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $59.1k | $913k |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | 83% | 85% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | 2% | 1% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | N/A | 0.182 | 0.395 |
| Markets | 0 | 0 | 47 | 856 |
| Best day | $0 | $0 |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | 4.64 | 1.66 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $1.14k | $469 |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $373 | $152 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | 0.97 | 0.30 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | $14.1k | $279k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | $-5.24k | $-287k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | N/A | $4.75k | $7.68k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.217 | 0.217 | 0.055 | 0.217 |
| Calmar | 18.364 | 18.364 | 18.364 | 18.364 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | 15% | 15% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | 49% | 28% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | 70% | 35% |
| Max win streak | N/A | N/A | 12 | 53 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | 2 | 5 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 0 | 5026 | 61182 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 0 | 47 | 856 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | N/A | 75% | 78% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | 0.839 | 0.841 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | N/A | 0.049 | 0.003 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | N/A | 78% | 69% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | 26 | 471 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | 1.25 | 1.04 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | 96% | 89% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | 4% | 10% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | 55% | 52% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.0077 | 0.0322 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.0544 | 0.0820 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | 0.927 | 0.945 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | $516 | $1.23k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | 9.1% | 141.9% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0780 | -0.0780 | -0.0780 | -0.0780 |
| Alpha ($) | $-3.19k | $-3.19k | $-3.19k | $-3.19k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -24.1% | -24.1% | -24.1% | -24.1% |
| Contrarian score | -0.101 | -0.101 | -0.101 | -0.101 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0817 | -0.0817 | -0.0817 | -0.0817 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Favorite Grinder: 87.9%
- News Sniper: 57.5%
- Scalper: 54.9%
- Tilted Gambler: 30.4%
- Conviction Holder: 28.2%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 2.03e-101; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
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- 0xd6418b39fc… entry 0.120
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