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0x14c32680ffc318892e0d019181e4161aa34cdf68
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
50% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (77%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.31).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 08:11:59 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | $51.3k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $-347k | $-894 | $98.3k |
| Win rate | N/A | 50% | 62% | 77% |
| ROI | 0% | -9% | -0% | 0% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.441 | 0.394 | 0.165 |
| Markets | 0 | 202 | 288 | 893 |
| Best day | $0 | $5.72k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 0.17 | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| Mean trade PnL | $0 | $-16.5k | $-7 | $118 |
| Median trade PnL | $0 | $0 | $21 | $5 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 0.17 | 0.62 | 0.31 |
| Largest win | N/A | $32.4k | $191k | $191k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-127k | $-127k | $-127k |
| Expectancy | $0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $2.12k | $4.52k | $1.84k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 420.044 | 0.494 | 0.252 |
| Calmar | 10.823 | 10.823 | 10.823 | 10.823 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 60.0 | 60.0 | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | 26% | 10% | 9% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | 94% | 42% | 38% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | 100% | 66% | 60% |
| Max win streak | N/A | 3 | 11 | 52 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 2163 | 10786 | 19142 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 202 | 288 | 893 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | 125% | 93% | 45% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | 0.038 | 0.219 | 0.459 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | 0.513 | 0.045 | 0.037 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | 99% | 73% | 71% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 4.7 | 72.2 | 69.7 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 0.0 | 28.3 | 4.1 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | 197 | 250 | 715 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.03 | 7.93 | 1.09 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | 76% | 42% | 68% |
| Average-down share | N/A | 19% | 31% | 21% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | 0% | 56% | 71% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.0959 | 0.0990 | 0.0645 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.0624 | 0.0957 | 0.1101 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | 0.988 | 0.955 | 0.766 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $-4.6k | $6.32k | $1.2k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | 296.3% | 514.7% | 100.3% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0545 | -0.0545 | -0.0545 | -0.0545 |
| Alpha ($) | $-1.14k | $-1.14k | $-1.14k | $-1.14k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -41.2% | -41.2% | -41.2% | -41.2% |
| Contrarian score | -0.245 | -0.245 | -0.245 | -0.245 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0466 | -0.0466 | -0.0466 | -0.0466 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Post-fill observations |
Joint probability 3.16e-12; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
| $18.5k |
| $20.5k |
| Worst day | $0 | $-2 | $-7.98k | $-10.7k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $-16.5k |
| $-7 |
| $118 |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| 50% |
| 57% |
| 54% |
| 0% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | 0% | 21% | 46% | 6% |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | 100% | 94% | 80% | 40% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | 100% | 50% | 67% | 4% |
| >0.90 | N/A | 75% | 86% | 95% | 50% |
| 0% |
| 7% |
| 10% |
| Spread capture | N/A | 0.1183 | 0.0198 | -0.0115 |
| Inventory turnover | N/A | 2163.00 | 10786.00 | 19142.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.36 | 0.69 |
| Avg ticket | N/A | $373 | $490 | $818 |
| Median ticket | N/A | $33 | $20 | $23 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | 567.60 | 13.30 |
| Quiet weeks | N/A | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 0.20 |
| 0.67 |
| 2.08 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $21.1k | 80% | 562 |
| Economic Policy | $18.2k | 100% | 1 |
| Culture | $10.1k | 75% | 24 |
| Up or Down | $9.93k | 33% | 18 |
| Politics | $4.92k | 55% | 20 |
| Tech | $4.11k | 89% | 9 |
| AI | $4.09k | 100% | 5 |
| Geopolitics | $3.72k | 67% | 6 |
| Parent For Derivative | $2.32k | 63% | 8 |
| Trump | $2.2k | 100% | 5 |
| Iran | $1.82k | 88% | 8 |
| Soccer | $1.79k | 73% | 11 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x914abe14… | $254k | $382k | 66.7% |
| 0xdbbbbd6e… | $254k | $381k | 66.7% |
| 0xe43caeee… | $180k | $270k | 66.7% |
| 0x08ac1bbc… | $133k | $200k | 66.7% |
| 0x8b10bf2e… | $-127k | $127k | -100.0% |
| 0x0f5e01cf… | $-127k | $127k | -100.0% |
| 0x4b84a8e0… | $-127k | $127k | -100.0% |
| 0x017f7984… | $127k | $63.3k | 200.0% |
| 0x95f726bb… | $-126k | $127k | -99.2% |
| 0x889e0fa1… | $98.7k | $148k | 66.7% |
| 0xc51a0833… | $-89.7k | $90k | -99.7% |
| 0xeb348b65… | $-89.7k | $90k | -99.7% |
| 0x8ec1344d… | $-66.5k | $66.7k | -99.7% |
| 0xd78567ca… | $-66.4k | $67.4k | -98.6% |
| 0xdac6e67b… | $-63.1k | $190k | -33.3% |
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