0x011f…1122

0x011f2d377e56119fb09196dffb0948ae55711122

Tilted GamblerGrade CStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.

Tilt ratio is 7.93 and disposition ratio 3.06, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.

Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 808.4), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 07:56:06 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$714k

Open PnL

$77.5k

Max drawdown

$276k

Underwater days

352

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	N/A	N/A	N/A	$715k
Realized PnL	$11	$48k	$47.9k	$594k
Win rate	50%	78%	40%	45%
ROI	0%	3%	3%	2%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	0.180	0.285	0.079
Markets	33	100	197	999
Best day	$-5.37k	$13.7k

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	1.01	5.46	1.45	1.08
Mean trade PnL	$6	$1.17k	$217	$103
Median trade PnL	$6	$29	$-21	$-2
Payoff ratio	1.01	1.54	2.19	1.32
Largest win	$1.22k	$18.3k	$28.7k	$585k
Largest loss	$-1.2k	$-7k	$-22.4k	$-557k
Expectancy	$6

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$6.68k	$4.99k	$15k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	0.214	0.391	0.092
Calmar	2.590	2.590	2.590	2.590
Drawdown duration (days)	353.0	353.0	353.0	353.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	100%	26%	20%	8%
Concentration top-5	100%	75%	46%	16%
Concentration top-10	100%	92%	66%	22%
Max win streak	1	13	13	52
Max loss streak	1	3	28	53

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	459	4118	19941	69567
Unique markets	33	100	197	999
Active days ratio	200%	114%	103%	100%
Avg entry price	0.132	0.169	0.175	0.174
Portfolio HHI	0.157	0.090	0.077	0.016
Maker share (notional)	98%	79%	77%	78%
Two-sided share	0%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	N/A	26.4	43.1	201.0
Holding time median (h)	N/A	18.7	16.9	37.3
Max concurrent	10	45	81	508
Disposition ratio	N/A	0.78	0.23	3.06
Add-to-winner share	52%	66%	64%	57%
Average-down share	26%	21%	29%	35%
Tilt ratio	0.01

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	N/A	48%	35%	42%
Brier (weighted)	0.0000	0.1408	0.0332	0.0571
Brier (unweighted)	0.0000	0.1018	0.0824	0.0876
Entry timing mean	0.454	0.402	0.428	0.459
Exit quality ($)	$0	$13	$106	$-9
Exit quality ROI gap	6229.4%	2315.1%	-211.9%	762.6%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	0.0038	0.0038	0.0038	0.0038
Alpha ($)	$2.14k	$2.14k	$2.14k	$2.14k
Alpha ROI gap	2829.5%	2829.5%	2829.5%	2829.5%
Contrarian score	0.442	0.442	0.442	0.442
Post-fill drift	-0.0017	-0.0017	-0.0017	-0.0017
Post-fill candles (mean)	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Tilted Gambler: 90.6%
Favorite Grinder: 43.2%
Scalper: 40.6%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 31.2%
Conviction Holder: 22.2%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x99466654a1… entry 0.032 timing 0.40
0x46eb6b4907… entry 0.182
0x01dffa7aba… entry 0.008 timing 0.28
0x4e65282819… entry 0.033 timing 0.84
0x7a18c03e9d… entry 0.033
0xe492ad958b… entry 0.033
0xa49fc89bfb… entry 0.033
0x298157e618… entry 0.033
0x4405c62496… entry 0.033
0xf374fb5869… entry 0.033
0x99a0fdc1bb… entry 0.163 timing 0.81
0x281565cae3… entry 0.154
0x9068108cd2… entry 0.277 timing 0.48
0x0e6dece0bf… entry 0.280 timing 0.22
0x5a24b05ba7… entry 0.006 timing 0.17
0x4018190670… entry 0.001
0x277a7364c4… entry 0.001 timing 0.74
0x434f5226d4… entry 0.003
0x850c5df4f7… entry 0.006 timing 0.17
0xa81e63ff4a… entry 0.170

Open share card

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0x011f…1122

0x011f2d377e56119fb09196dffb0948ae55711122

This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.

Tilt ratio is 7.93 and disposition ratio 3.06, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.

Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 808.4), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

N/A

$715k

Realized PnL

$11

$48k

$47.9k

$594k

Win rate

50%

78%

40%

45%

ROI

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.180

0.285

0.079

Markets

100

197

999

Best day

$-5.37k

$13.7k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

1.01

5.46

1.45

1.08

Mean trade PnL

$1.17k

$217

$103

Median trade PnL

$29

$-21

$-2

Payoff ratio

1.01

1.54

2.19

1.32

Largest win

$1.22k

$18.3k

$28.7k

$585k

Largest loss

$-1.2k

$-7k

$-22.4k

$-557k

Expectancy

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$6.68k

$4.99k

$15k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

0.214

0.391

0.092

Calmar

2.590

Drawdown duration (days)

353.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

100%

26%

20%

Concentration top-5

100%

75%

46%

16%

Concentration top-10

100%

92%

66%

22%

Max win streak

Max loss streak

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

459

4118

19941

69567

Unique markets

100

197

999

Active days ratio

200%

114%

103%

100%

Avg entry price

0.132

0.169

0.175

0.174

Portfolio HHI

0.157

0.090

0.077

0.016

Maker share (notional)

98%

79%

77%

78%

Two-sided share

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

N/A

26.4

43.1

201.0

Holding time median (h)

N/A

18.7

16.9

37.3

Max concurrent

508

Disposition ratio

N/A

0.78

0.23

3.06

Add-to-winner share

52%

66%

64%

57%

Average-down share

26%

21%

29%

35%

Tilt ratio

0.01

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

N/A

48%

35%

42%

Brier (weighted)

0.0000

0.1408

0.0332

0.0571

Brier (unweighted)

0.0000

0.1018

0.0824

0.0876

Entry timing mean

0.454

0.402

0.428

0.459

Exit quality ($)

$13

$106

$-9

Exit quality ROI gap

6229.4%

2315.1%

-211.9%

762.6%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

0.0038

Alpha ($)

$2.14k

Alpha ROI gap

2829.5%

Contrarian score

0.442

Post-fill drift

-0.0017

Post-fill candles (mean)

6.0

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Tilted Gambler: 90.6%

Favorite Grinder: 43.2%

Scalper: 40.6%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 31.2%

Conviction Holder: 22.2%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x99466654a1… entry 0.032 timing 0.40
0x46eb6b4907… entry 0.182
0x01dffa7aba… entry 0.008 timing 0.28
0x4e65282819… entry 0.033 timing 0.84
0x7a18c03e9d… entry 0.033
0xe492ad958b… entry 0.033
0xa49fc89bfb… entry 0.033
0x298157e618… entry 0.033
0x4405c62496… entry 0.033
0xf374fb5869… entry 0.033
0x99a0fdc1bb… entry 0.163 timing 0.81
0x281565cae3… entry 0.154
0x9068108cd2… entry 0.277 timing 0.48
0x0e6dece0bf… entry 0.280 timing 0.22
0x5a24b05ba7… entry 0.006 timing 0.17
0x4018190670… entry 0.001
0x277a7364c4… entry 0.001 timing 0.74
0x434f5226d4… entry 0.003
0x850c5df4f7… entry 0.006 timing 0.17
0xa81e63ff4a… entry 0.170

Sports	$455k	47%	1863
Parent For Derivative	$64k	37%	83
President	$-52.7k	18%	22
United States	$-49.9k	42%	86
nyc	$40.6k	25%	24
Fed	$38.6k	31%	29
Celebrities	$28.3k	33%	3
Politics	$-25.5k	48%	501
AI	$25k	58%	45
Trump	$22.5k	49%	86
LA	$21.5k	75%	4
Geopolitics	$-19.6k	57%	53

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x61b66d02…	$146k	$520k	28.1%
0xc418abe9…	$-111k	$268k	-41.5%
0xebddfcf7…	$95.5k	$608k	15.7%
0x6edc6c77…	$87.2k	$785k	11.1%
0x62008db6…	$78.7k	$63.6k	123.8%
0x0d2b2dbe…	$-76.5k	$274k	-27.9%
0xd9645417…	$74.3k	$25.8k	288.2%
0x734bc81d…	$68.6k	$30.2k	227.0%
0x893df4c1…	$68.6k	$75.5k	90.9%
0x26ed2c7b…	$-68.2k	$410k	-16.6%
0x233dd2af…	$67.1k	$258k	26.1%
0xc3e1b9c2…	$65.3k	$52.3k	124.8%
0x6a57b189…	$62.9k	$62.4k	100.7%
0x57ec5933…	$54k	$2.61k	2072.5%
0x9332eb8a…	$50.1k	$113k	44.2%

0x011f…1122

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0x011f…1122

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

Hour of day (UTC)

Day of week (UTC)

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