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Politics · Multi-outcome
Consensus is open-interest weighted across venues with eligible prices.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Consensus | Venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | - | 23.5% | 23.5% | - |
| Before 2028 | - | 17.5% | 17.5% | - |
| December 31 | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 0.5% |
| Before December | - | 5.5% | 5.5% | - |
| September 30 | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| 3.7% |
| 1.2% |
| Before November | - | 3.5% | 3.5% | - |
| Before September | - | 2.5% | 2.5% | - |
| Before August | - | 0.5% | 0.5% | - |
Combined open interest
$1.51M
Polymarket locked USDC plus Kalshi max-payout notional.
Polymarket OI
$631k
Locked USDC reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi OI
$876k
Contracts multiplied by max-payout notional.
Polymarket volume
$62.8M
Price-weighted traded USD.
Kalshi volume
$6M
Kalshi-reported contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Combined volume
$68.8M
Polymarket traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Combined 24h volume
$101k
Polymarket 24h traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Polymarket 24h
$71.1k
Price-weighted traded USD reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi 24h
$29.9k
Kalshi-reported 24h contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Polymarket resolution
Open venueThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Kalshi resolution
Open venueIf the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
December 31
$40.9M Vol.