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Politics · Multi-outcome
Consensus is open-interest weighted across venues with eligible prices.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Consensus | Venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 41.2% | 40.5% | 41.1% | 0.7% |
| Marco Rubio | 26.8% | 29.5% | 28.3% | 2.7% |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | - | 4% | 4% | - |
| Donald J. Trump |
| - |
| 3% |
| 3% |
| - |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Donald Trump | 1.6% | - | 1.6% | - |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.4% | - | 1.4% | - |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Ted Cruz | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.8% | 1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Josh Hawley | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Brian Kemp | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0% |
| Rand Paul | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Tom Brady | 0.6% | - | 0.6% | - |
| Joe Kent | 0.6% | - | 0.5% | - |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Candace Owens | - | 0.5% | 0.5% | - |
| Jeff Bezos | - | 0.5% | 0.5% | - |
| Spencer Pratt | - | 0.5% | 0.5% | - |
| Lara Trump | - | 0.5% | 0.5% | - |
| Nikki Haley | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0% |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.5% | - | 0.5% | - |
| Erika Kirk | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Mike Pence | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Byron Donalds | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Greg Abbott | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Steve Bannon | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Tom Cotton | - | 0.4% | 0.4% | - |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Elon Musk | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Katie Britt | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Eric Trump | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| John Thune | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Kristi Noem | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Nicki Minaj | - | 0.2% | 0.2% | - |
Combined open interest
$4.62M
Polymarket locked USDC plus Kalshi max-payout notional.
Polymarket OI
$2.91M
Locked USDC reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi OI
$1.71M
Contracts multiplied by max-payout notional.
Polymarket volume
$676M
Price-weighted traded USD.
Kalshi volume
$3.13M
Kalshi-reported contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Combined volume
$679M
Polymarket traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Combined 24h volume
$1.12M
Polymarket 24h traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Polymarket 24h
$1.09M
Price-weighted traded USD reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi 24h
$31.1k
Kalshi-reported 24h contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Polymarket resolution
Open venueThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Kalshi resolution
Open venueIf Candace Owens wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ron DeSantis
$15.2M Vol.