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Politics · Multi-outcome
Consensus is open-interest weighted across venues with eligible prices.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Consensus | Venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 19.9% | 16.5% | 19.8% | 3.4% |
| Marco Rubio | 14.2% | 16.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% |
| Gavin Newsom | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 0.2% |
| Jon Ossoff | 7.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 3% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
| 7.9% |
| 8.5% |
| 8.4% |
| 0.7% |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% |
| Kamala Harris | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0% |
| Andy Beshear | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Donald J. Trump | - | 2.4% | 2.4% | - |
| Mark Kelly | - | 1.9% | 1.9% | - |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.6% | - | 1.6% | - |
| Rahm Emanuel | - | 1.5% | 1.5% | - |
| JB Pritzker | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Donald Trump | 1.4% | - | 1.4% | - |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | - | 1.2% | 1.2% | - |
| Wes Moore | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1% | - | 1% | - |
| Ro Khanna | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Elon Musk | 0.8% | - | 0.8% | - |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0% |
| Michelle Obama | 0.7% | - | 0.7% | - |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.7% | - | 0.7% | - |
| Greg Abbott | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Thomas Massie | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0% |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.6% | - | 0.6% | - |
| James Talarico | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Hunter Biden | - | 0.5% | 0.5% | - |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0% |
| Nikki Haley | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.5% | - | 0.5% | - |
| Eric Trump | 0.5% | - | 0.5% | - |
| Stephen Smith | 0.5% | - | 0.5% | - |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.4% | - | 0.4% | - |
| LeBron James | 0.3% | - | 0.3% | - |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.3% | - | 0.3% | - |
| Stephen A. Smith | - | 0.3% | 0.3% | - |
| Tim Walz | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Combined open interest
$12.8M
Polymarket locked USDC plus Kalshi max-payout notional.
Polymarket OI
$11.1M
Locked USDC reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi OI
$1.71M
Contracts multiplied by max-payout notional.
Polymarket volume
$662M
Price-weighted traded USD.
Kalshi volume
$3.2M
Kalshi-reported contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Combined volume
$665M
Polymarket traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Combined 24h volume
$2M
Polymarket 24h traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Polymarket 24h
$1.94M
Price-weighted traded USD reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi 24h
$64.5k
Kalshi-reported 24h contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Polymarket resolution
Open venueThe 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Kalshi resolution
Open venueIf Ro Khanna is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Gavin Newsom
$17.6M Vol.