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Crypto · Multi-outcome
Consensus is open-interest weighted across venues with eligible prices.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Consensus | Venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $55,000.00 | - | 58.5% | 58.5% | - |
| Below $50,000.00 | - | 46.5% | 46.5% | - |
| Below $45,000.00 | - | 36% | 36% | - |
| Below $40,000.00 | - | 26.5% | 26.5% | - |
Combined open interest
$494k
Polymarket locked USDC plus Kalshi max-payout notional.
Polymarket OI
N/A
Locked USDC reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi OI
$494k
Contracts multiplied by max-payout notional.
Polymarket volume
N/A
Price-weighted traded USD.
Kalshi volume
$733k
Kalshi-reported contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Combined volume
$733k
Polymarket traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Combined 24h volume
$16.9k
Polymarket 24h traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Polymarket 24h
N/A
Price-weighted traded USD reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi 24h
$16.9k
Kalshi-reported 24h contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Polymarket resolution
Rules unavailable in snapshot.
Kalshi resolution
Open venueIf the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $40000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
$117k Vol.