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Politics · Multi-outcome
Consensus is open-interest weighted across venues with eligible prices.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Consensus | Venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | - | 72% | 72% | - |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | - | 65.5% | 65.5% | - |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | - | 44.5% | 44.5% | - |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | - | 38.5% | 38.5% | - |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | - | 29.5% |
| 29.5% |
| - |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | - | 20.5% | 20.5% | - |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | - | 11.5% | 11.5% | - |
| Before Aug 15, 2026 | - | 4.5% | 4.5% | - |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | - | 1.5% | 1.5% | - |
| Before Jul 15, 2026 | - | 0.5% | 0.5% | - |
Combined open interest
$966k
Polymarket locked USDC plus Kalshi max-payout notional.
Polymarket OI
N/A
Locked USDC reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi OI
$966k
Contracts multiplied by max-payout notional.
Polymarket volume
N/A
Price-weighted traded USD.
Kalshi volume
$5.25M
Kalshi-reported contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Combined volume
$5.25M
Polymarket traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Combined 24h volume
$99.4k
Polymarket 24h traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Polymarket 24h
N/A
Price-weighted traded USD reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi 24h
$99.4k
Kalshi-reported 24h contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Polymarket resolution
Rules unavailable in snapshot.
Kalshi resolution
Open venueIf the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
$545k Vol.